Monday, May 19, 2008

Obama's terrible problem with white voters

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Sorry for the snark. One of my pet peeves has been the tendency for media to overplay the supposed "white-voter-gap" for Obama. Here in Minnesota, Obama won decisively. Some states he's done better with whites, some worse, but it is much more complicated than "Obama does/does not appeal to white voters." It has a lot to do with geography and culture, and sure, racial attitudes play a role, but Obama has shown he can appeal across a very broad spectrum of voters.

Anyhow, the pics from the Portland rally (75,000 people) are impressive no matter how you look at them.

5 comments:

2fs said...

And "white" voters doesn't really mean all white voters. And why no one asking how's McCain's support among black voters, Latino voters, Asian voters, college-educated voters (of any race or ethnicity), women, etc.? Add up all those groups (and I'm guessing McCain does less well among them than Obama - granted, the guesses are based on, uh, no info at all), and suddenly the question of Obama's maybe less-than-enthusiastic support among working-class whites (which is indeed maybe iffy) hardly seems to matter much.

Scott W. said...

Well, to repeat your point...

I think it's safe to say that McCain will not do well with minorities this year. Despite his relatively reasonable stance on immigration, the immigrant bashing of the GOP in general has ruined the efforts of some GOP leaders (Bush and McCain for two) to expand the party's tent to include Hispanics.

So, add that to Obama's support from 80-90 percent of African American voters, plus the youth vote, plus the "elitist" vote--i.e., lots of people with college degrees, and it seems to me you have a pretty strong coalition.

Obama does have some bridges to mend (if I may mix my metaphors) in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania, but as the election plays out as a choice between Obama (change) and McCain (not change) I think the perceived lack of support from white working class white voters will not be as pressing a concern as some think it is now. (again, pretty much what you said!)

Just my opinion, from my perspective. Maybe living in Minnesota (a whole state of elitists!) blinds me to the truth, but at this point, I don't think so.

Scott W. said...

Guess I invented a new voting bloc: "white working class white voters..."

oops.

The Tall Guy said...

Well, they say many of those Catholic White Folks from Pennsylvania who voted for Hillary will vote for McCain in the general election. At least that is what they said on the pbs News Hour. But by the same token, turnout might be higher in other demographics etc. etc. etc.

Scott W. said...

I used to watch News Hour almost every day when I lived in Milwaukee. Now when I turn it on I fall asleep instantly. It's like somebody hit me with a 2 by 4. The soft thud is my head on the couch, the louder clatter is the remote falling out of my hand.

I think a lot of Dems who preferred Clinton will come home to the party, but there's no doubt some more conservative Dems will either go with McCain or stay home.

Obama's gotta get out there and make his best pitch to them and see what happens. I would guess that he'll win Penn. narrowly and probably Ohio too. Despite any lingering problems some may have with BO, (heh) the economy is going to be a big driver of D votes in those states.