Tuesday, September 30, 2008

GOP: One Party, Many Voices.

Does anyone know what the GOP stands for these days? We have a presidential candidate being contradicted by his VP candidate on the issue of military action in Pakistan. We have the GOP President pulling out all the stops to pass the bailout bill, only to be defeated by a rebellion of House Republicans. We have McCain calling for the passage of the bailout bill, only to see the Republican National Committee release a campaign ad attacking the bailout bill.

Isn’t it usually the Dems who are seen as the party of chaos? Have the two parties switched identities?

It’s Just A Complicated Game

I’ve been mostly silent on the financial bailout plan because mostly, I don’t understand it. And usually, when you’re ignorant about something, it’s better not to broadcast that fact.

However, as with most political blogs, displaying my ignorance is pretty much what I do here at the World’s Most Dangerous Political Blog ™. So here we go!

I’ve always thought of high finance as a big shell game, a kind of semi-religious con that is basically moving lots of numbers around to the benefit of those who pretend to know what the numbers mean. And when I hear, as I have constantly in the past week, that nobody really understands exactly what’s going on, or that the $700 billion number was pulled out of Henry Paulson’s Fannie Mae, or that no one is exactly sure that the bailout will really work, it makes me think that my—admittedly cynical—take might be right.

But let’s assume that a bailout really is needed. Enough smart people are saying that that I am willing to accept the premise.

The problem that faces us is, apparently, that the majority of Americans are, like me, very dubious about this fix. And in an election year, a lot of congress people are just not willing to go against their constituents and vote for this unpopular bill.

It seems to me that some sort of compromise could be found. Say, a bill that provides some security blanket to Wall Street, that doesn’t lock in another huge debt to the taxpayer, that doesn’t give too much authority to Paulsen, that basically says – “here’s what’s needed to tide us over ‘till after the election” —when the new President and Congress came take this on in a less panicked, politically-charged atmosphere.

Now, that may be kicking the can down the road, and maybe we don’t have that luxury. I simply don’t know.

What I do know is that neither of the two candidates seem to be willing to go very far in suggesting fixes, which, given the calendar, is not surprising. It’s annoying to see McCain flailing around on this, but to be honest, I’m not impressed with Obama’s kind of hands-off approach either.

I know he’s put forward a few suggestions. But mostly, I think he’s content to bash McCain and Republican mismanagement. It’s probably good politics. I personally would like to get beyond that, but I’m not always realistic about these things.

I would now like to formally apologize for wasting three-and-a-half minutes of your time.

Carry on.

Friday, September 26, 2008

What did you think?

We watched most of the debate after getting back from the ER, our son had some weird stomache pains but seems ok now. So anyhow, a little family trauma made the debate just a little less important for me.

But now that things have settled down and I've seen some of the response by the cable talkers, I would say Obama has come out of the first debate better than I expected. My wife and I both thought McCain had a very strong performance, and considering how erratic McCain has been acting recently, he seemed pretty prepared and calm.

But both candidates appeared to hold their own, and the conventional wisdom seemed to be that McCain needed a knockout to change the dynamic of the race. Of course, conventional wisdom can be wrong. We'll see in the next couple of days.

I've noticed in comments on some of the political blogs this curious claim that Obama doesn't do well in unscripted events; that he needs a prepared speech or a teleprompter. It's a ridiculous claim, yet I've seen it quite a few times. I think tonight's debate is a pretty clear refutation of that. Although the folks that make these kinds of claims always seem pretty impervious to things like evidence and logic.

Anyhow, on to the vice presidential debates!

Thursday, September 25, 2008

I'm Suspending My Blog! We'll Do it Live!

I've been wanting to post something but every time I fire up the computing machine, John McCain does something even more maverick-y and I just don't know what to say. He sure would be an exciting president.

Oh, and if you get a chance to see Palin being interviewed by Couric, well, I hope you're sitting down. Mega-maverickosity, is what I call it.

Monday, September 22, 2008

They called it

Remember, months ago, when Hillary Clinton ran some ads that Obama supporters took issue with? Remember the “3 AM phone call” ad? Remember how the two sides argued about whether Clinton was being too unfair or misleading? And how the Clinton supporters all said, “If you think this is bad, wait until you see the Republican ads in the fall. They’ll make this look like child’s play.”

Those people didn’t prevail as far as getting their candidate nominated. But their prediction looks pretty smart, doesn’t it?

I’ve done my share of bashing the McCain campaign; I think a lot of people recognize now that his ads are over the line even for modern partisan politics. And I think, or at least hope, that people are starting to tune them out. Certainly the popular culture is beginning to get the fact that McCain will say anything to win.

Housekeeping

Just a couple minor changes. I've posted some links to some factchecking sites and Pollster.com. I find these sites useful, you might too. Also, I've opened up comments so that people can leave anonymous comments. I frankly didn't realize that my settings required people to sign up to Blogger to comment. So that's changed for now. If we start getting a lot of spam or Ron Paul supporters showing up in the comments, I may put some mild restrictions up.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Hiding Sarah

Well, here’s some very telling information about Sarah Palin’s first town-hall meeting as VP candidate, where she for the first time took questions from the public:

“The McCain campaign confirms that tonight’s event was advertised on the McCain/Palin Web site and local newspapers. People had to pick up their tickets at local GOP offices after RSVPing for the event. The Kent County GOP headquarters gave out about two thousand tickets. The rest came from GOP offices in Ottowa and Kalamazoo.”

Oh good, a hand-picked audience. You know who else regularly pulls this kind of crap? Our current president, who can talk real tough about terrorists and evildoers, but apparently can’t appear in front of people who might disagree with him. Whose widely-reported unwillingness to hear different viewpoints is credited with disasters in Iraq and here at home. Whose popularity rating hovers between 20 and 30 percent.

Great role model, McCain campaign. You go ahead with that plan and see how it works for you. Keep sending your candidates to friendly crowds in pro-Republican communities. Limit the interviews to a bare minimum, and when you do take questions, insist on interviewers like Sean Hannity or Bill O’Reilly.

There’s a basic truth to campaigning. You can run, but you can’t hide. The very fact that the McCain campaign keeps Palin away from the tough questions speaks volumes about her readiness for the Vice Presidency, and about their confidence in their pick.

The American people are starting to pay attention to this race. And they can see when one side is avoiding scrutiny. If McCain wants to turn this into a classic Rovian presidential race, where each side turns out their base, I think he’s in for a disappointment. Democratic registration is way up, Republican registration is down. It’s true Palin will bring out the hard-right evangelical base, but this year, I don’t think that’s going to be enough.


(update) ... and because it's not worth a new post but is worth reading, here's the best argument yet against Sarah Palin as VP -- from conservative pundit David Brooks.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Resuming our regular programming

Well, I took a couple days off for camping and some family activities. It rained, of course.

But I haven’t gotten back to the World’s Most Dangerous Political Blog™ until just now. What, you don’t like my new slogan?

Seriously, it’s been an interesting few days. We’re seeing the McCain post-convention bump slowly dissipate in the polls. This may or may not continue, but I suspect that Obama will be leading most national polls by this time next week as people realize that John McCain is still at the top of the ticket and Sarah Palin is not the second coming of Reagan.

The financial crisis now gripping Wall Street is a prime opportunity for Obama to seize control of the national debate and show that he is the candidate best suited to deal with domestic issues such as this. The question is, will he? The Obama camp has shown a tendency to play it safe, keep things slow and steady. It’s easy to second-guess that strategy, but it’s been working pretty well for them, the recent setback in the polls notwithstanding. However, I wonder why they’re not grabbing this opportunity.

Maybe there are no quick fixes to the troubled financial sector. Maybe it would be irresponsible to come up with some dramatic plan for change.

All I know is that Obama is hitting McCain hard for saying that the fundamentals of our economy are sound. If they aren’t, what’s Obama’s solution? Can he articulate his vision for change in a way that we, the unwashed masses who don’t understand how Wall Street works, can understand?

He says he’s the real candidate for change. OK, so how do we fix this particular problem?

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Is this election about Sarah Palin?

It’s a question that has been on my mind. I know that the conservatives are excited about the pick, and with good reason. And I know Dems are a little freaked out about the bounce in the polls for McCain that seems directly attributable to Palin.

But this election is not primarily about her. It’s fine to examine her record and question her qualifications, that’s the same kind of scrutiny that every candidate has to go through. And the more resistance that the McCain team shows (and they’ve been making quite an effort to keep Palin from facing tough questions) the less good it looks.

My hope is that we can get back to discussing the two main candidates, McCain and Obama, and their strengths and weaknesses. This is pretty important election. I think a major question is whether we want to change the course this country has taken over the last 8 years. We need to focus on that, not Sarah-cudda. (That’s what they called her in Alaska, apparently.)

But if we must have another Palin post, here’s an amusing video that’s made the rounds lately.


Sunday, September 07, 2008

Contrasting Candidates, Contrasting Conventions

The conventions are quickly becoming old news. But I wanted to mention how different Denver and St. Paul were, in terms of execution and competence.

The Dem convention came in with a lot of questions. Mostly about whether the party could come together, re: the Hillary and Obama camps. But every day, it seemed the convention kind of raised the bar. Hillary's speech went great. Bill, who the pundits seem to think would blow a gasket or something, also got rave reviews. And Obama's stadium speech, which was increasingly seen as risky by the media, also was a big success. Even the silly "Greek Temple" issue that critics whipped up about the speech's background was defused once you saw the stage itself; there was nothing unusual about it at all. In sum, the convention went pretty much like clockwork.

Compare it to the Republican convention. The hurricane, of course, was something the the R planners couldn't have predicted and couldn't control. But that problem faded quickly. Hurricane aside, the week got off to a chaotic beginning, as a total unknown was announced as VP just prior to the convention. Rudy Giuliani's speech went long, causing the convention to cancel the Palin introductory video (it was played the next night). There was the strange video background for McCain's speech. I have to say, I was absolutely astounded to see a lime green background behind McCain early in the speech, since he had been so widly ridiculed for the green screen background of an earlier speech. And the wider shot was of what appeared to be a mansion -- again, not a good image for McCain, since the "7 Houses" issue came up.

But it wasn't a mansion, turns out. It was Walter Reed Middle School in Los Angeles. Many have speculated that the McCain camp intended to put Walter Reed military hospital in the background, which would have been fitting to some degree, given McCain's past. No one knows exactly what was going on (McCain's camp, in the best Bush tradition, is refusing comment), but the bottom line is that for a huge section of thespeech, what TV viewers mostly saw was a weird green background, which was later replaced by an equally eye-damaging blue background.

That's not to say there weren't good moments to the convention. Palin's speech was a huge success. McCain had some good moments toward the end of his speech. Thompson got his baritone on.

But overall, the R convention was more chaotic, more glitchy, less disciplined. It's a small thing, I suppose. But both conventions can be seen as reflections of the management styles and basic competence of the candidates. Take your pick.

Friday, September 05, 2008

The McCain Speech

You could tell John McCain was trying to appeal to a wider range of voters than his base last night. It was kind of a revival of the old John McCain, after a month of the Sneer N’ Smear campaign that his Rovian advisors have had him running.

So it was kind of nice to see the old McCain. And it was riveting to hear him talk about his POW experience. That was by far the strongest part of what was really a pretty weak speech overall.

But the POW camp was a long time ago. And the Independent Maverick Guy seems a long time ago too. John McCain may still be the patriot with his character forged by the most unimaginable hardship. But he’s also the guy who’s been lying to us for most of this campaign, and questioning Obama’s patriotism, and putting up those despicable “celebrity” ads.

He has to own all of it. The embrace of the far right. His flip-flop on taxes. His 100 Years of Occupation in Iraq. His buy-in to Bush economic policies. His hotheaded neo-con foreign policy. The rash, rushed selection of Sarah Palin, which is a brilliant short-term move but actually is appallingly risky for the country in the long run.

Judge the man as a whole. And hope that he enjoyed the night. His nomination is a fitting end to a long and admirable career. But John McCain is all about the past, not the future.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Life in a box

Geez, I guess the "McCain doesn't exploit his POW years for political purpose" myth is totally dead, right?


update: I wrote the above before McCain took the stage, when the repetitive telling of his POW story seemed a bit excessive.

But in his speech, his story of being a POW was by far the most compelling part. It's a gripping story, and as I've said before, he's a great American. But as a certain conservative pundit suggested recently, this isn't merely a personal narrative contest. This is about the future of the country, and who is best equiped to lead us.

I'll probably have some more comments on the speech later.

Just to follow up ...

From today's Washington Post:

"Only 36 of the 2,380 delegates seated on the convention floor are black, the lowest number since the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies began tracking diversity at political conventions 40 years ago. Each night, the overwhelmingly white audience watches a series of white politicians step to the lectern -- a visual reminder that no black Republican has served as a governor, U.S. senator or U.S. House member in the past six years.

"It's hard to look around and not get frustrated," said Michael S. Steele, a black Republican and former lieutenant governor of Maryland. "You almost have to think, 'Wait. How did it come to this?' "

A few names come to mind. Ronald Reagan. Richard Nixon. Rush Limbaugh.

Not champions of diversity. And whether or not you agree that diversity is a strength of this country, not something to be feared, the fact is that diversity is our future.

Again, this kind of issue, not mooseburgers, is what this election should be about, in my opinion.

Beyond the Palin Speech

(I just can’t help myself.)

So hey, good speech. After three days locked away with the best speechwriting talent that Republican money can buy, with a crowd primed and ready to cheer her on, Sarah Palin succeeded … maybe not surprisingly, but admirably.

I didn’t watch the whole speech, I’ll admit. My wife and I have been watching Buffy the Vampire Slayer on DVD lately, so we switched between butt-kickin’ heroines. And I don’t have a problem with saying Palin kicked a little butt last night. She had a great line about Obama’s foolish “bitter” comment. She had a slightly less great line about community organizers—actually pretty snide and unfair, but the crowd Luuuved it. And she got in a dig at Michelle Obama by saying how small town Americans “always” are proud of their country.

OK, so we know from this speech that she can attack the Obamas and media. And we know that John McCain is a great man. What else ya got?

At some point the R ticket really has to answer with something beside “Obama stinks.” They have to talk about the economy, about health care, about home foreclosures. They have to address education and energy—something beyond “we’ve got plenty of oil and gas on the North Range”—which, environmental concerns aside, simply isn’t true.

As they noted last night, great speeches aren’t enough. Vision is also required. And Sarah Palin’s Christianist, anti-choice, social Darwinist, anti-science vision of America is not a vision of this country’s future. It’s a vision of the past.

Speaking of a vision of the past, it was hard not to notice the Unbearable Whiteness of Being Republican last night when the cameras panned around the convention center. I mean, I expect to see fewer minorities at the RNC, but come on. I could count the number of African Americans I saw on one hand.

Now, how should the Obama camp respond to Palin’s speech? I’m thinking: the less said, the better. Let the R’s have their moment. Don’t come down like a ton of bricks on Palin and make her an even more sympathetic figure. Let McCain’s public nap, I mean, speech tonight pop the balloon all by itself. Or, if by chance he actually can match Palin (pretty unlikely, don’t you think?), give a lot of attention to the media’s fact checking.

For Palin,
it wasn’t pretty:

PALIN: "I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending ... and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere."

THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a "bridge to nowhere."

PALIN: "There is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform — not even in the state senate."

THE FACTS: Compared to McCain and his two decades in the Senate, Obama does have a more meager record. But he has worked with Republicans to pass legislation that expanded efforts to intercept illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction and to help destroy conventional weapons stockpiles. The legislation became law last year. To demean that accomplishment would be to also demean the work of Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a respected foreign policy voice in the Senate. In Illinois, he was the leader on two big, contentious measures in Illinois: studying racial profiling by police and requiring recordings of interrogations in potential death penalty cases. He also successfully co-sponsored major ethics reform legislation.

PALIN: "The Democratic nominee for president supports plans to raise income taxes, raise payroll taxes, raise investment income taxes, raise the death tax, raise business taxes, and increase the tax burden on the American people by hundreds of billions of dollars."

THE FACTS: The Tax Policy Center, a think tank run jointly by the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, concluded that Obama's plan would increase after-tax income for middle-income taxpayers by about 5 percent by 2012, or nearly $2,200 annually. McCain's plan, which cuts taxes across all income levels, would raise after tax-income for middle-income taxpayers by 3 percent, the center concluded.

(see the AP story for much more.)

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Behind the Veil

A conservative friend just emailed me with some fairly boilerplate comments from Peggy Noonan (legendary conservative speechwriter for those of you unfamiliar). In those comments, she says the Left is going to attack Palin for being a strong conservative woman, it will get brutal, they're going to try to "kill her," etc.

The message, much as Fred Thompson (FRED! Good to see you again!) suggested last night, is that the Liberals and the Big Bad Media are in a panic over the virtuousness of Sarah Palin and her cause.

Riiiiiiight.

The truth is, this is just a lot of faux outrage. The McCain campaign is desperate. I know I use that word a lot, but time after time, it's the most appropriate for what McCain is doing. They're trying to whip up the conservative base and whatever women they can peel off, and they think they can do it by telling you the Liberal Media is Out To Get Sarah.

But behind the scenes, there's another story. Here's Peggy Noonan caught on an open mic saying "It's over," in reference to the McCain campaign, and calling the Palin-as-victim narrative "political bullshit."




And here's Joe Klein talking about how the McCain campaign is trying to bully the media into going easy on Palin.

Don't fall for the spin.

No Accountability

This is depressing.

I think Gov. Sarah Palin is a bright and likable politician. She has a lovely family, and they are due privacy and respect. Her resume doesn’t have nearly enough meat to it to qualify her for vice president, in my opinion, but I know there are plenty of people who say the same about Barack Obama’s qualifications.

It just is kind of painful to see a promising career being trashed by the Republican Party.

That’s not a typo. The McCain campaign is lashing out at the media, as they’ve been lashing out at liberal bloggers and the Obama camp, trying to whip up a backlash against legitimate questions surround Palin and the McCain vetting process.

But it’s not the media or political opponents who are really doing the damage here.

By any standard, McCain botched his selection. Even if you accept the premise that Palin is qualified and her various issues are not serious enough to disqualify her, can anyone argue that McCain shouldn’t have handled this better? Made the decision earlier so that some of these issues wouldn’t be a huge distraction during the convention, maybe? Huddled with Palin more than one brief meeting in February so she’d be prepared for the media onslaught? Float a trial balloon, as he did with a possible Lieberman pick?

Instead, we’ve had a media circus entirely created by the McCain campaign’s incompetence. And what has that campaign done to address the questions that have come up? Have they had Palin sit down with select reporters to answer questions? Have they had a press conference? Have they even let her speak?

No. They’ve hidden her away, started stonewalling, hired the lawyers, and unleashed the GOP surrogates to attack the media and try to muddy the issues.

It’s really kind of disgusting. And it’s exactly the same Rovian, deflect-accountability-at-all-cost mindset that we’ve seen so often from the Bush Administration.

Do we really want another administration like that?

Palin will most likely give a good speech tonight. And the Republican faithful will continue to do their admirable mental gymnastics in embracing a political neophyte as the possible next President of the United States, an abstinence-promoting Family Values candidate with her own personal issues, a straight-talkin’ reformer who hides from the press and the American people.

It’s quite a spectacle.

Whatever Sarah Palin’s done, she doesn’t deserve this. And she has Sen. McCain, and the Bush GOP, to thank.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Country First - A Case Study

“ST. PAUL — A series of disclosures about Gov. Sarah Palin, Senator John McCain’s choice as running mate, called into question on Monday how thoroughly Mr. McCain had examined her background before putting her on the Republican presidential ticket.

On Monday morning, Ms. Palin and her husband, Todd, issued a statement saying that their 17-year-old unmarried daughter, Bristol, was five months pregnant and that she intended to marry the father.

Among other less attention-grabbing news of the day: it was learned that Ms. Palin now has a private lawyer in a legislative ethics investigation in Alaska into whether she abused her power in dismissing the state’s public safety commissioner; that she was a member for two years in the 1990s of the Alaska Independence Party, which has at times sought a vote on whether the state should secede; and that Mr. Palin was arrested 22 years ago on a drunken-driving charge.

Aides to Mr. McCain said they had a team on the ground in Alaska now to look more thoroughly into Ms. Palin’s background. A Republican with ties to the campaign said the team assigned to vet Ms. Palin in Alaska had not arrived there until Thursday, a day before Mr. McCain stunned the political world with his vice-presidential choice. The campaign was still calling Republican operatives as late as Sunday night asking them to go to Alaska to deal with the unexpected candidacy of Ms. Palin.

Although the McCain campaign said that Mr. McCain had known about Bristol Palin’s pregnancy before he asked her mother to join him on the ticket and that he did not consider it disqualifying, top aides were vague on Monday about how and when he had learned of the pregnancy, and from whom.”
New York Times, Elisabeth Bumiller, 9-2-08

The question is not about Sarah Palin’s experience or lack thereof, it is not about her daughter, it is not about 22-year-old drunken-driving charges. It is about the judgment and decision-making process of Sen. John McCain. The conventional wisdom was that the VP pick says a lot about how a candidate would approach his duties as President of the United States.

McCain had met Palin once before calling her to come to Arizona and do the final interview for the VP slot.

Is there any other case in memory of a candidate for President acting so hastily, so rashly, in a decision of this magnitude?

This is putting country first?


update: It appears that Sarah Palin was not a member of the AIP, but her husband was, and they both attended one of the group's conferences. The McCain campaign is pushing back hard against some of these issues, but both McCain and Palin have canceled interviews and appearances. Hiding won't help.