A few thoughts on the recent South Carolina Republican Primary
A lot of attention was paid to this primary, probably because it was seen as a test of Nikki Haley's ability to pull some votes away from Trump's base. Haley was governor in S.C. for six years, so there was some thought she might get more support because of that.
But it wasn’t really a surprise when he won, 60% to 40%. The MAGA movement once again dominated a GOP race. (But… dominated? Is that perhaps too strong a word for a 20-point victory?)
Few political movements in U.S. history have been studied more closely than the current Republican base. We know who they are. We know what they want. We know what they believe. None of it is very pleasant stuff, but there are reasons we've developed such a grievance-ridden, misinformed, discontented set of voters. That is probably better addressed in another post.
What struck me were a couple points. For one thing, it reinforced a point that has probably not gotten enough attention. Aside from the MAGA base, Trump is in trouble with two groups that he needs to win: moderate Republicans and independents.
According to exit polls (all following numbers are percentages) those two groups went 70-29 for Haley among moderate R's and 53-46 for Haley among independents. In addition, first-time primary voters went for Haley 57-42. That last number is interesting; hard to say exactly what it means, but it could signal an increased anyone-but-Trump position among people who normally aren't tuned into the presidential elections this early.
To me, another interesting number was the exit polling on race. The Washington Post exit polling showed that only 8% of voters were people of color. The polls showed that 92% of the voters in the Republican primary were white.
African-Americans, by the way, make up 26% of the population of South Carolina. So, some segment of that 8% of the non-white people were African American voters.
This does not seem to support the idea that that people of color have become more open to voting for Trump. There have been some polls suggesting that, but in this primary, the R voters where overwhelmingly white. And “overwhelmingly” may not be a strong enough word.
On Feb. 23, Trump, speaking at conference for Black conservatives, had some things to say about this, including that “the Black people” like him because he has been charged with a lot of crimes. Also, they like him because he has a famous mug shot from being indicted. All the suggestions that Black people relate to criminals is probably not going to do Trump any favors with that voting group.
A lot of the MAGA movement is based on delusion, so I guess it’s not surprising that Trump and his supporters want to believe that people of color are warming to him. But I question whether Trump really cares much about how many Black voters actually support him. I think it’s possible that his patronizing comments about Black people are mainly a sop to the feelings his white base. All those white folks don’t want to admit that racism exists in America—that’s become a de facto plank of the Republican Party, right? White conservatives frequently get very insistent that racism either no longer exists or that it has become irrelevant (Nikki Haley even has made those kinds of comments frequently in her campaign).
Few things get white conservatives more agitated than a discussion of race. I have encountered this firsthand in social media, where the angriest outbursts of white conservatives usually come when I suggest that someone or something could be racist. It’s almost like you hit a nerve when you bring it up.
So, Trump and the whites who support him want to bolster the narrative that race is not a problem for the country, or for their party. Or their candidate. And they want to believe that supporting someone like Trump couldn’t possibly be racist in any way. Look, Black people love him! Or at least, they are liking him more these days. So, we don’t have to think about racism. All fixed.
The numbers don’t really seem to support that. I mean, even if we ignore the many African Americans who have spoken out on this issue, there just isn’t much real evidence that people of color are changing their minds about Trump. Again, we know who he is. We have a pretty good idea of what his policies will be. And they are decidedly not about diversity, tolerance, and social justice. He is simply not popular with most people of color. Comments about how the system is out to get him is not going to change that. Selling ugly sneakers is not going to change that. I am pretty sure nothing is going to change that.
