The Austin Debate

I saw the last half hour of the debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and I'm watching the analysis now. I can't claim to have seen a ton of debates, I catch a little here and there, but I thought Obama sounded very good in this one. Articulate, passionate at times, presidential in bearing.

But I have to say that Clinton really deserves a lot of credit for her performance tonight. Conventional wisdom, and traditional politics, would dictate that she come out on the attack, that she go negative, try to tear Obama down a little and stop his momentum. Except for a couple of mild jabs (one of which earned her some boos) she did not go negative.

And that last statement she made was really one of the best moments I've seen from her. It was generous, compassionate, and statesmanlike. Hearing her say she was honored to be there with Obama, hearing her talk about how no matter what, she'll be fine, I had to think that maybe she was preparing herself, and her followers for an eventual loss. But that strong finish might have helped her, just maybe, to put that day off a little longer.

And one other thing struck me: this crowd liked both of these candidates. Both drew strong applause. The only negative reaction was when the candidates got negative. It was almost as though the audience was feeling protective of both of them. I think this is typical of how Democrats are seeing this election: they like both of these candidates. Sure there is some sniping between camps, but the average D voter would embrace either candidate.

A good night for the Democratic party and for the country as a whole.

Under the Weather and the Wire

I've been completely wiped out by the flu for the better part of a week, so I haven't been up for posting lately. Turns out this year's flu is a different strain than the flu shot was designed for. So can I get my money back?

The race in Wisconsin has been really fascinating and much closer than I think most expected. Clinton has put in a great effort in a state that is pretty well suited to her. And though most expect Obama to pull it out, it should be a close race. I've noticed signs of high turnout, and that's usually good news for Obama. But I wouldn't be totally shocked if Clinton pulls an upset.

predictions

D: Obama wins by under a 10 pt. margin.
R: McCain wins handily. Huckabee has been campaigning hard, but I think he's probably won his last primary.

Oh yeah, Hawaii,
Obama should win big, McCain too.

On Wisconsin

Obama and Clinton are stumping in my old-adopted-home-state of Wisconsin, and I’m a little envious. Sure, the two Dem candidates and some of the R’s visited here, but they were always pretty brief visits in those hectic days before Super Tuesday. Wisconsin gets a whole week to be the center of the political universe.

I’m just looking back at some of the recent developments. I know that Clinton’s camp has to find some way to have a positive outlook re: winning the nomination, but I’m not sure their “we’ll get enough superdelegate votes to overcome the will of the people” spin is really the best message to be sending right now.

Likewise, I know that McCain wants to project the image of experience and appeal to older voters, but his speech after the Potomac primaries (dubbed the Crab Cake Primaries by some) was a rather grim affair. Surrounding yourself with old white men who are wearing what appear to be identical brown suits is maybe going too far in the effort to be The Serious Candidate.

There’s an idea: “Next on ‘What Not to Wear’: Senator John McCain will present the team with its biggest challenge yet!!”

Potomic Tide is High

There are really two outcomes from today's Dem primaries. A) Obama wins them all, and continues to have massive momentum moving fo---whoa, too much alliteration there for even me.

Ahem. A) Obama wins them all, and continues his momentum, or B) Clinton pulls an upset or a near-upset and we go back to a very close race.

But this could be the night when it really starts to look like we've reached a tipping point. After this one, we have Wisconsin, where Obama has an 11 point lead. By that time, Clinton will have lost 8 in a row. The "Hillary is more electable in the fall" argument will seem pretty ridiculous by then. In order to look electable, you have to actually win some elections. The claim that only she can go toe to toe with McCain seems a lot less plausible when she evidently can't go toe to toe with Obama.

I'm not here to bash Clinton. She would be a very strong candidate in the fall. But I think her moment is slipping away.

On the Republican side, McCain should win. If Huckabee pulls an upset or comes close, it will look very bad for McCain. I mean, the man was just endorsed by Fred Thompson! Where's the excitement, people? Where's the love???


D: Obama wins Virginia, Maryland, DC.
R: McCain wins 'em.

Juan Williams: Pundit, Please!

So this morning I hear Juan Williams talking on NPR about how only black people vote for Obama.

He didn’t say it quite like that but that really was his main point. Black people vote for Obama, white people (and Latinos and Asians, according to Juan) vote for Clinton. It was like a five minute piece of “analysis” which went on and on and on about the racial divide between Obama and Clinton.

This is the day after Obama crushed Clinton in Maine.

And two days after he crushed her in Nebraska. Which joins Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah, and Kansas as states where Obama has won without a large African American vote.

The piece did have a clip of Obama making just that point about winning states with mostly white populations. Then they dismissed the point and talked for the rest of the piece about how there’s this big racial divide issue.

There’s no doubt that the numbers show a significant racial gap in southern states. In those states, Obama does great among African Americans. He doesn’t do as well with white voters, but he’s not getting blown out of the water either. He got 43 percent of the white vote in Georgia, for example.

But the bigger picture is that he has done really well in states with largely white populations. Why you would do an analysis of the campaign that ignores this important piece of the puzzle is beyond me. I guess Juan has his story, and he’s sticking to it.

Once

Saw the movie Once last night. A really good movie, if you like indie-type films and indie-type music. Hard to follow the dialogue in places, one actor has a strong Irish accent and the other a strong Czech accent, but even though we missed a few words, we really enjoyed it.

So that is about a million miles away from the usual content of this blog, and I can't think of a transition or segue.

Obama won three states last night, caucuses in Washington and Nebraska, and a primary in Lousiana. Could you find three more different states? Yet he won by big margins in all three.

On the Republican side, Huckabee won in Kansas and Lousiana, and was just barely behind McCain in the Washington Caucuses when for some reason they stopped announcing results. McCain's been declared the winner, but it does have an odd feel to it, so expect the conspiracy theories to fly.

Hasn't anyone told Huck that this thing is over and McCain's the nominee? The Republican side continues to be very interesting. I don't think the R's are totally happy with their presumptive candidate.

We could see some ugliness on the D side, but so far it's remained relatively civil. Clinton's all, "oh, we're kinda skipping February, we'll kick butt in March," and Obama's all, "OK, Rudy Jr., we'll see how that works for you," and Clinton goes, "well you only win caucuses," and Obama says, "yeah, I only win them 70-30," and ...

Prediction for the D caucuses in Maine: Obama. (I hate to make the prediction, I'll probably jinx him, but he seems to be on a roll...)

Mickey Mouse Clubhouse

Come inside, it's fun inside.

Up on a Saturday morning with the kids, watching cartoons and blogging about the future of democracy.

Talk about cartoons, the latest flap about MSNBC and Chelsea Clinton is certainly a tempest in a spinning teacup. (There was a reference to pimping Chelsea. Her mom's campaign took exception.) Not that what the MSNBC newsbot said wasn't thoughtless and irresponsible. But isn't that pretty much what is required from cable news talkers these days?

When you look at the lineup of the cable news shows, you see a long parade of idiots, blowhards, and bullies. Maybe we should have our news and analysis handled by a stable of Disney critters. It could hardly be any worse.

Lucky for you, you have my expert opinion to turn to...

Predictions for today:

R: Uh, McCain wins? I suppose Huckabee could take Louisiana. I'd still predict McCain to win Washington, Louisiana and Kansas today.

D: Obama wins Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska.

The Fall of Romney

Oh blah blah blah. You're quitting because that's what it takes to win the war on Terrorism? Huh?

Typical logic from a guy who believes that in order to fight terrorism you have to invade the wrong country.

Maybe this was the trouble with Romney all along. In his frantic need to say what he thought conservatives wanted to hear, he said some pretty stupid things. Wasn't he the one who wanted to double Guantanamo?

Good riddance to this pretender.

Huck lift us up where we belong

I was only able to catch bits and pieces of Super Tuesday coverage, but it was a fun and interesting night. The best moment was when I was driving home at around midnight (I went to see a band) and heard Mike Huckabee call his supporters the “WalMart Voters,” and then said they were the wind beneath his wings.

Aw shucks, Huck!

(He really did say that.)

Huck was one of the surprise stories of the night, winning five states; not bad for a bass player. Mitt Romney won seven states but failed to win any big ones save Massachusetts (I believe he was endorsed by “Binky” Kennedy, a disowned cousin of the Kennedy clan.) But most of the real prizes went to Sen. John McCain, who must be thanking his lucky stars that Huckabee is around to split the conservative vote with Romney.

On the Democratic side, Obama made me look silly by winning about twice as many states as I predicted, including Minnesota, which I did not think would go to him because, well, I really don’t know what I was thinking. He just had an electrifying rally here a few days ago that the whole town was talking about but I still could not put two and two together.

Of course, he did not pick up California, which means he remains slightly behind Hillary in the delegate count (I think. If you understand this delegate business, maybe you can design a transporter beam for me. I could really save on gas that way.)

Here’s how a top Democrat in Minnesota described the turnout. “We not only broke all prior records, we shattered them. The all-time caucus-turnout record, in 1968, was under 80,000. Turnout topped 75,000 only one other time, in 1972. Last night we topped 200,000; Secretary of State Mark Ritchie estimates that, when all the precincts report, more than 230,000 DFLers attended a precinct caucus — triple the old record.”

230,000 people turning out for the Democratic caucuses. And there were reports of people giving up because of the long lines and lack of parking. The Republican Party estimated a turnout of 58,000 voters in their caucuses.

Those are very interesting numbers. And they’re not unique to Minnesota.

Super Tuesday Aftenoon

This is kind of an exciting day.

For the Republicans, it’s looks like McCain will win most of the primaries/caucuses. However, Huckabee will win a few and it’s possible Romney will do better than expected. I expect Romney to win two at minimum, but the real question is can he pull the upset in California. One poll had him ahead there, but polls can be wrong. If he does, it may signal that the dissatisfaction with McCain among the rank and file is still going to be a problem for him. In any case, a California win for Romney signals that it ain’t over, although I think McCain is still the heavy favorite.

On the Democratic side, it’s kind of chaotic. Polls are all over the place. The latest Zogby poll has Obama up by 13, an astounding number given how far ahead Clinton was a few weeks ago. But a Survey USA poll has Clinton winning by 10.

It’s MADNESS!

Seriously, I don’t trust the polls at this point. They were wrong in New Hampshire. They underestimated the strength of the Obama win in SC. There are tons of undecideds making up their minds at the last minute. And there is so little, position-wise, that separates the two Dems that people are probably going to make a lot of last-minute decisions and flip-flops that are impossible to forecast.

So who the heck knows. I think there’s strong evidence of an Obama surge right across the country. If he pulls in a lot independents and first-time voters and caucas-ers he could really have a good night. On the other hand I think you could argue that Clinton has been making a strong case for herself on issues such as health care. Plus she has tons of party establishment people helping her with the ground game.

This primary, some say, was designed to ensure a quick and decisive consensus around Hillary Clinton as the candidate in 08. No matter what happens tonight, it’s not working out that way. Credit Obama and his staff for changing this game dramatically. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, it’s going to be a race to the finish.

Oh, late update: Clinton’s campaign is now calling for one debate a week between her and Obama. That’s NOT a sign of confidence.


Predictions:

Republicans
John McCain will win:
Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Mitt Romney will win:
Delaware, Massachusetts, and Utah.

Mike Huckabee will win:
Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia.*

Ron Paul will win:
Alaska!

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton will win:
Arkansas, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and American Samoa.

Barack Obama will win:
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, and Kansas.


*Huckabee was announced the winner in West Virginia before I posted this, fyi.

In Praise of John McCain, and Back to the Future

First of all, I just want to say I admire Sen. John McCain. He’s a thowback, a Republican who actually doesn’t mind working with Democrats and doesn’t let partisan politics override what’s best for the country. That breed has nearly become extinct, but McCain shows that it’s not gone completely.

McCain is a conservative, but his maverick reputation is well-deserved. I’ve liked, or at least respected, some of his positions. McCain-Feingold was a valiant, although less than successful attempt to lessen the way money corrupts politics. His stances on gay marriage and immigration are fairly reasonable. He was against GWB’s tax cuts before he was for them (a flip flop that folks on both sides are right to criticize). He is not a global warming denier. And I think our nation owes him a huge debt for being a Republican leader who has come out strongly against torture.

Those stances drive many Republican pundits crazy, of course. But part of the reason, I believe, that McCain is doing so well is that the Republican rank and file are beginning to moderate their views somewhat. One might say that Republican voters are finally entering the 20th century. And John McCain is leading the charge.

On the flip side of all these warm and fuzzy feelings, however, I have a sense of déjà vu. Regardless of whether or not the Republican Party is changing, many observers say Republican voters are flocking to McCain because they’re convinced he’s the Most Electable. These "most electable" rationales can backfire, you know. They said that about John Kerry, too.

They also said that about Bob Dole. Talk about Déjà vu: Dole was a war hero, like McCain. Dole ran in a primary against a rich former businessman (Steve Forbes), a charismatic conservative insurgent (Pat Buchanan), and really boring old guy (Phil Gramm). Sound familiar? Dole was the oldest presidential candidate ever at the time, at 73 years and 1 month. McCain will be 73 years and 1 month old if and when he gets the nomination.

Oh, and Dole was running against someone named Clinton.

Getting down to brass tacks

Just a few days before Super Tuesday, the races for the Democratic and Republican nominations are really heating up. Most of the lesser candidates have dropped out. Only Ron Paul remains as a candidate who has not won a primary. And although he has no shot, at least RP has raised a decent amount of money and has shown some respectable numbers; he was beating Giuliani on a regular basis.

On the Republican side, McCain should be able to wrap this thing up relatively soon. The way these primaries have played out have ended up hurting Romney. Too many candidates to split the voting blocs, too many early open primaries where independents could give McCain that extra boost, and too many skeletons in Romney’s political closet to overcome. It will be interesting to see conservative standard bearers like Rush Limbaugh turn 180 degrees and decide that after years of McCain-bashing, they now feel he’s not so bad after all, but I expect it will happen. That’s politics, folks.

A lot of bloggers and pundits on the left side of the spectrum have to be asking themselves how this could’ve happened—the candidate that is absolutely their worst nightmare come next fall has somehow come back from oblivion and become the front-runner for the Republicans. While everyone was making fun of “Nearly-Dead Fred” Thompson and posting jpg’s of Rudy in drag on their Web sites, McCain just kept performing well in the debates, ran an effective campaign on the ground in New Hampshire, and let the other candidates kind of pick each other off. I confess I didn’t expect him to draw enough Republican support to win some of the early states, but he has momentum now and it’s hard to see how Romney can stop him.

On the Democratic side, the race is pretty darn close. Obama has been catching up with Clinton in the polls, but a lot of Super Tuesday will depend on ground games and getting out the vote, and I think Clinton has the advantage there. On the other hand, Obama’s campaign just announced they raised $32 million in January alone, so who knows what that will mean. We’re kind of in uncharted waters here.

I hope to be able to make predictions before Tuesday, but there are a LOT of states in play, so I’m not sure how to handle that. Who will win the American Samoa Caucuses, for example? Has anybody seen poll numbers from Samoa?? I guess I’ll check out HaveSamoaPolitics.com…