I've also been on Twitter! Like, six times!
Yeah, well, anyhow, I returned to good old ML for this day-before-election-day post, mainly because I wanted to go on a bit, lucky you. So I'll give you some predictions up top, and ponder what it's all about further down. (Hint: hell, hand basket, etc.)
Long story short: I predict Hillary Clinton will win this election. Donald Trump is within striking distance of her--especially in some key battleground states--so I could be wrong. He could pull off on upset; even create a repeat of the 2000 election, when George W. Bush lost the national vote but won the presidency due to the electoral college. That could happen again this year. But I don't think it will.
I predicted early on that this would be a landslide, or at least a very strong win for Hillary. I still think that's possible, although probably not to the extent I thought a few months back. Here's my thinking: when a candidate alienates large segments of the population, say, Latinos, African-Americans, women, etc., then that candidate may struggle to find a strong national following.
Trump has outperformed expectations, as usual. The late-breaking FBI investigation/nevermind letters hurt Clinton, a bit. And her own shortcomings as a candidate also were a problem for her.
But we're hearing stories of a very strong turnout of Latino voters. I think it's very likely that women will vote for Hillary in unprecedented numbers, due mainly to wanting to make sure a man like Trump never gets the validation that the Presidency would confer. African-American voting may lag behind the historic highs that Obama generated, but again, it looks like there will be a relatively strong turnout there for the Democratic ticket.
We're a diverse country. Relying on angry, aging white people is simply not a winning strategy. And everyone tells me that a strong "ground game" counts--and the D's seem to have an advantage there. Unless the rumors of a "hidden" Trump vote come true to an astonishing degree, he will not be able to overcome Clinton's advantages with a wide range of voters. But as always, I could be wrong.
So here's my prediction: I'll go big and say that Hillary wins nearly all the battleground states. I'll give Ohio to Trump.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
That's a strong win. I could see it getting to 340 (add Ohio), or even 351 (Arizona). But that's probably wishful thinking.
As far as what it all means, I think it's safe to say we've really seen some of the fault lines in our society in the past year or so. White working-class people seem really fed up--with something. I just hope it's not the fact that they're not in charge in anymore. Because that's not going to change. We're going to have a more diverse country. We should be celebrating that, not fearing it.
I know people who have had it rough, economically. I kind of get why they might favor Trump, though his personal flaws seem disqualifying to me, even if you like the idea of a wall. But I also know Trump supporters who have had it pretty good over the last couple decades. And they seem angry too, over things that don't make a lot of sense to me. Is political correctness really destroying our country? Apparently it *can* kill you to be nice.
I often have said this election is a national IQ test. And even if HRC is elected tomorrow, I'd have to say we failed it. If Donald Trump can convince 40+ percent of the American voters that he deserves their vote, then something's wrong. And all of us need to get to work figuring out the fix. Our media, our educational system, our social networking--all if it needs to be re-examined to figure out why so many problems with our society remain: so much racism, so much misogyny, so much violence, and so much stubborn ignorance--even when the facts are easily obtained.
We need to be better people in order to be a better nation. And that's on all of us. Let's keep talking, as a first step.
I know people who have had it rough, economically. I kind of get why they might favor Trump, though his personal flaws seem disqualifying to me, even if you like the idea of a wall. But I also know Trump supporters who have had it pretty good over the last couple decades. And they seem angry too, over things that don't make a lot of sense to me. Is political correctness really destroying our country? Apparently it *can* kill you to be nice.
I often have said this election is a national IQ test. And even if HRC is elected tomorrow, I'd have to say we failed it. If Donald Trump can convince 40+ percent of the American voters that he deserves their vote, then something's wrong. And all of us need to get to work figuring out the fix. Our media, our educational system, our social networking--all if it needs to be re-examined to figure out why so many problems with our society remain: so much racism, so much misogyny, so much violence, and so much stubborn ignorance--even when the facts are easily obtained.
We need to be better people in order to be a better nation. And that's on all of us. Let's keep talking, as a first step.
