Again, given that no one reads this blog and my complete lack of expertise, this post is beyond irrelevant. But just for fun:
House: The Dems pick up 21 seats. Speaker Pelosi calls President Bush and says, "I'm wondering if you can give me advice on picking out the drapes for my new office..."
Senate: I think there's a great chance for the Dems to pick up at least five seats. But let's say that the Republicans manage to put up a last-second three-pointer in Missouri or Montana. Or both. (I like that analogy better than the Hail Mary. The HM is a miracle, the three-point shot is just a great effort at the end of a close game.) Possible upset: Steele in Maryland.
In other words, I have no idea how the Senate turns out. But the Dems will do well. Gaining control was always a very formidable challenge.
I'm going to be watching tonight for early signs of that Wave that people are talking about. (They're not talking about it as much as two weeks ago, I notice.) If Penns. and NY are big sweeps for the Dems, if Indiana's big three seats go to the Dems, the wave is on. I think.
On the other hand, it's hard for me to imagine all three of those Indiana seats flipping. Indiana as a state is as red as Lady MacBeth's hands.
(Guess that should be "as red as Lady MacBeth imagined her hands to be." Clumsy.
This is one of many reasons why I'm not a pundit.)
Anyhow. It's likely to be a long night. Our "improvements" to the voting systems in various states almost garuntees it. I'll stay up untill MN results are in, I think. Unless my six-month old has a rough night. Then it's lights out for us all.
Politics can wait.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Hatch May Recover
The roller coaster has a few twists and turns left in it. In the latest Star Tribune poll, Mike Hatch is leading 44 to 41 percent over Tim Pawlenty.
Now, the Strib Poll (sorry, the Minnesota Poll) is the bane of Republicans in the state. They hate it. They believe it always favors the Democrats. They have some reason to think that. It does not have the best record. But there have been some pretty wacky races in Minnesota in the past decade. Jesse Ventura was one that no one saw coming. The Mondale/Coleman matchup after Wellstone’s death was a pollster’s nightmare, because the race was in complete chaos.
And these results are within the margin of error. So fine, call it a tossup. But note that the daily trends show Hatch losing ground on Tuesday through Sunday, and gaining ground since then. So the E85 Republican Whore story hurt him, but then he seemed to recover. That’s one way to read it. Let’s argue that this reading is accurate, then Hatch is trending up, and it’s possible Pawlenty—who continues to struggle in the 40-41 percent range—has hit his ceiling.
Or, you could read it another way. Pawlenty, with help from Hatch has managed to keep this thing within the margin of error as we hit Election Day. The poll is probably giving Hatch a few extra points, as it has done with Democratic candidates in the past. The Republican GOTV will overcome any remaining deficit.
Either scenario is possible.
Ok, it’s a tossup.
Now, the Strib Poll (sorry, the Minnesota Poll) is the bane of Republicans in the state. They hate it. They believe it always favors the Democrats. They have some reason to think that. It does not have the best record. But there have been some pretty wacky races in Minnesota in the past decade. Jesse Ventura was one that no one saw coming. The Mondale/Coleman matchup after Wellstone’s death was a pollster’s nightmare, because the race was in complete chaos.
And these results are within the margin of error. So fine, call it a tossup. But note that the daily trends show Hatch losing ground on Tuesday through Sunday, and gaining ground since then. So the E85 Republican Whore story hurt him, but then he seemed to recover. That’s one way to read it. Let’s argue that this reading is accurate, then Hatch is trending up, and it’s possible Pawlenty—who continues to struggle in the 40-41 percent range—has hit his ceiling.
Or, you could read it another way. Pawlenty, with help from Hatch has managed to keep this thing within the margin of error as we hit Election Day. The poll is probably giving Hatch a few extra points, as it has done with Democratic candidates in the past. The Republican GOTV will overcome any remaining deficit.
Either scenario is possible.
Ok, it’s a tossup.
Monday, November 06, 2006
Minnesota Election Thoughts
The roller coaster ride is almost over. That is, presuming that we don’t have lots of voting machine glitches/ polling place controversies/ voting irregularities/ lawsuits to draw the results out for days and weeks. Which is probably far too much to presume.
But here in Minnesota, I think we’ve had about as much democracy as we can stand.
The Senate race here is over. Klobuchar walks away with it. Kennedy was supposed to be this great Republican candidate, but I think overall the R’s really overestimated how well a "hard" conservative like MK would do among Minnesota voters. He always did well in his district, I know, but for God’s sake, Michelle Bachmann is going to win that district. And she is the definition of a right wing Christian fundamentalist. So in hindsight, they shoulda gone with a more moderate-appearing candidate like a Coleman or Pawlenty type. Kennedy is not a terrible candidate, just a little too conservative for the state overall.
The Governor’s race well, what can you say. It’s been entertaining. I love Pawlenty as a campaigner. He’s calm, confident, good-humored, optimistic, just a wonderful example of "Minnesota Nice." His policies, on the other hand, are not quite that benign. But when deciding on a face to represent Minnesota, and really that’s part of what we’re doing here, it’s hard not to think TP is a great guy to do that.
Hatch’s meltdown is so classic. I’ve had the opportunity to work with both campaigns, and Pawlenty’s hums along like a machine, while Hatch’s is like a bar fight. Both styles can get you results, but it probably was only a matter of time before Hatch got into trouble. It is so fascinating to think about how this is going to affect the election, but of course we’ll never know, probably. He almost made it through the campaign without flashing that famous temper. So close.
Oh, just for the record, here's a recap: During an interview, Hatch’s running mate drew a blank on what E85 is; it’s a type of ethanol gas, a big deal to farmers and outstate Minnesota. In trying to do damage control, Hatch made things worse by calling a reporter a "Republican whore," then spent a couple days denying he said that, then kind of confirmed it. Amazing.
Hatch had been leading in single digits before all this; the latest polls show him ahead by a couple points. This at a time when Republican candidates nationwide are closing in the polls and firming up their base. Disaster for Hatch, right? Maybe. Or maybe in this state, at this time, Republicans just aren’t as popular, and it won’t be enough to make a difference. Pawlenty’s support has been lukewarm, if I’m reading the polls right. If you squint hard and try to read between the lines of what Pawlenty has said in the past six months, you might conclude that the guy kinda thinks he won’t be reelected. I bet he’s feeling a lot better today than he did last week, though.
In the 2nd Congressional District, Kline keeps his seat easily. Rowley never looked much like a viable candidate to me. Smart, but not disciplined. Not comfortable with the media. Gives off the "loose canon" vibe, which I say, thank god she was one in the FBI. But it’s not going to be a positive in an election.
The Bachmann/Wetterling match up has been really ugly and disappointing to anyone who hoped this could be Dem pickup. Wetterling is a great person and a lousy candidate. Bachmann wiped the floor with her during every debate. PW did not come across as confident, knowledgable, and articulate. Bachmann did. Bachmann represents a pretty radical extreme of American politics. But she will win this district because the Dems thought Wetterling’s life story was more important than her skills in public speaking. Mistake.
The Ellison race is another one where some ugliness has developed. Ellison has some flaws, and he deserves to be criticized for them. But it was obvious that much of the opposition to him was driven by the fact that some people find an African-American Muslim a bit unsettling. And really, a more nonthreatening, gentle guy could hardly be imagined. Allan Fine and the curiously tan Tammy Lee (A tan? In Minnesota? In NOVEMBER?) are not going to combine to knock Ellison out.
In the 1st, Tim Walz has run an absolutely great campaign against Gil Gutknecht. He’s an extremely appealing candidate; articulate, aggressive, a man-of-the-people persona, and obviously very smart. His military service and stance on the Iraq war are a strong combination in this environment. However, Gutknecht is a skilled, experienced campaigner and has an excellent record. I think in any other year Gutknecht wins pretty comfortably. This year, Walz may pull it off. Either way, the 1st District has fine representation in D.C.
One thing that may be a topic for post-election discussion is whether the Dems blew it in 2006 in Minnesota. On the whole, the party should do well. They will probably win offices like Secretary of State, Attorney General, and perhaps add to their numbers in the state House and Senate. It would not be surprising if they captured the House back from the Republicans. Yet you have to wonder if the DFL will be left thinking about what might have been. It’s very possible that Hatch’s stumble last week will cost him the Governor’s race. The 6th, 2nd and 1st Districts were in play late in the season. Better candidates, especially in the 6th and 2nd, could have led to pickups for the Dems. (Hard to imagine a better candidate than Walz in the 1st.) Coulda, shoulda, woulda. The DFL may have to be satisfied with holding on to their Senate seat and the 5th CD seat and some downticket victories.
There was a lot more out there.
(A final, note, now that I’ve been checking up on different news sources all day. All the pundits are predicting Wetterling and Hatch will win. Few are predicting Walz will overtake Gutknecht. Maybe that’s just the difference of the view from Washington, D.C. and the view here on the ground, or maybe they’re a lot smarter than me. I really don’t get the Wetterling prediction, since recent polls have shown her behind, and not just by a couple of points… but we’ll see.)
But here in Minnesota, I think we’ve had about as much democracy as we can stand.
The Senate race here is over. Klobuchar walks away with it. Kennedy was supposed to be this great Republican candidate, but I think overall the R’s really overestimated how well a "hard" conservative like MK would do among Minnesota voters. He always did well in his district, I know, but for God’s sake, Michelle Bachmann is going to win that district. And she is the definition of a right wing Christian fundamentalist. So in hindsight, they shoulda gone with a more moderate-appearing candidate like a Coleman or Pawlenty type. Kennedy is not a terrible candidate, just a little too conservative for the state overall.
The Governor’s race well, what can you say. It’s been entertaining. I love Pawlenty as a campaigner. He’s calm, confident, good-humored, optimistic, just a wonderful example of "Minnesota Nice." His policies, on the other hand, are not quite that benign. But when deciding on a face to represent Minnesota, and really that’s part of what we’re doing here, it’s hard not to think TP is a great guy to do that.
Hatch’s meltdown is so classic. I’ve had the opportunity to work with both campaigns, and Pawlenty’s hums along like a machine, while Hatch’s is like a bar fight. Both styles can get you results, but it probably was only a matter of time before Hatch got into trouble. It is so fascinating to think about how this is going to affect the election, but of course we’ll never know, probably. He almost made it through the campaign without flashing that famous temper. So close.
Oh, just for the record, here's a recap: During an interview, Hatch’s running mate drew a blank on what E85 is; it’s a type of ethanol gas, a big deal to farmers and outstate Minnesota. In trying to do damage control, Hatch made things worse by calling a reporter a "Republican whore," then spent a couple days denying he said that, then kind of confirmed it. Amazing.
Hatch had been leading in single digits before all this; the latest polls show him ahead by a couple points. This at a time when Republican candidates nationwide are closing in the polls and firming up their base. Disaster for Hatch, right? Maybe. Or maybe in this state, at this time, Republicans just aren’t as popular, and it won’t be enough to make a difference. Pawlenty’s support has been lukewarm, if I’m reading the polls right. If you squint hard and try to read between the lines of what Pawlenty has said in the past six months, you might conclude that the guy kinda thinks he won’t be reelected. I bet he’s feeling a lot better today than he did last week, though.
In the 2nd Congressional District, Kline keeps his seat easily. Rowley never looked much like a viable candidate to me. Smart, but not disciplined. Not comfortable with the media. Gives off the "loose canon" vibe, which I say, thank god she was one in the FBI. But it’s not going to be a positive in an election.
The Bachmann/Wetterling match up has been really ugly and disappointing to anyone who hoped this could be Dem pickup. Wetterling is a great person and a lousy candidate. Bachmann wiped the floor with her during every debate. PW did not come across as confident, knowledgable, and articulate. Bachmann did. Bachmann represents a pretty radical extreme of American politics. But she will win this district because the Dems thought Wetterling’s life story was more important than her skills in public speaking. Mistake.
The Ellison race is another one where some ugliness has developed. Ellison has some flaws, and he deserves to be criticized for them. But it was obvious that much of the opposition to him was driven by the fact that some people find an African-American Muslim a bit unsettling. And really, a more nonthreatening, gentle guy could hardly be imagined. Allan Fine and the curiously tan Tammy Lee (A tan? In Minnesota? In NOVEMBER?) are not going to combine to knock Ellison out.
In the 1st, Tim Walz has run an absolutely great campaign against Gil Gutknecht. He’s an extremely appealing candidate; articulate, aggressive, a man-of-the-people persona, and obviously very smart. His military service and stance on the Iraq war are a strong combination in this environment. However, Gutknecht is a skilled, experienced campaigner and has an excellent record. I think in any other year Gutknecht wins pretty comfortably. This year, Walz may pull it off. Either way, the 1st District has fine representation in D.C.
One thing that may be a topic for post-election discussion is whether the Dems blew it in 2006 in Minnesota. On the whole, the party should do well. They will probably win offices like Secretary of State, Attorney General, and perhaps add to their numbers in the state House and Senate. It would not be surprising if they captured the House back from the Republicans. Yet you have to wonder if the DFL will be left thinking about what might have been. It’s very possible that Hatch’s stumble last week will cost him the Governor’s race. The 6th, 2nd and 1st Districts were in play late in the season. Better candidates, especially in the 6th and 2nd, could have led to pickups for the Dems. (Hard to imagine a better candidate than Walz in the 1st.) Coulda, shoulda, woulda. The DFL may have to be satisfied with holding on to their Senate seat and the 5th CD seat and some downticket victories.
There was a lot more out there.
(A final, note, now that I’ve been checking up on different news sources all day. All the pundits are predicting Wetterling and Hatch will win. Few are predicting Walz will overtake Gutknecht. Maybe that’s just the difference of the view from Washington, D.C. and the view here on the ground, or maybe they’re a lot smarter than me. I really don’t get the Wetterling prediction, since recent polls have shown her behind, and not just by a couple of points… but we’ll see.)
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Nov. 5
The mid-term elections are Tuesday. I have become a bit obsessed with them, I admit. So just to give myself an outlet, I may be posting a few thoughts here over the next two days.
Where have I been? Oh, you know, having a life. Had a new baby in the past year and that's kept us pretty busy. Also, I have a blog on MySpace now where I post music-related stuff and a few things about life in general. MySpace sucks in many ways, but it's easy and frankly the "community" aspect of it means that more people see what I write, although I'd bet I could count that number without using all my fingers. For a variety of reasons, I've never done much to publicize this blog. Sorry, blog.
So what I'm saying is that I want to blog about politics over the next two days, but I don't want anyone to see it. Make sense? Yeah, not to me either.
Where have I been? Oh, you know, having a life. Had a new baby in the past year and that's kept us pretty busy. Also, I have a blog on MySpace now where I post music-related stuff and a few things about life in general. MySpace sucks in many ways, but it's easy and frankly the "community" aspect of it means that more people see what I write, although I'd bet I could count that number without using all my fingers. For a variety of reasons, I've never done much to publicize this blog. Sorry, blog.
So what I'm saying is that I want to blog about politics over the next two days, but I don't want anyone to see it. Make sense? Yeah, not to me either.
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