Monday, November 02, 2020

 One day to go

I generally make predictions for these things.  I'm gonna forgo the 270 to Win maps and other claptrap and just point out what I've been saying for four years:

Donald Trump was not popular when he won the presidency. He has never been a popular president. He is not popular now, not with the majority of the American people. This is the foundation. 

People are turning out in historic numbers to vote. Why? Because they think the economy is great? Because they think the current administration has done a great job protecting us from COVID-19? Because they feel good about where the country is re: race relations? 

A fair number of people support this President. Many of that number support him strongly. I don't understand that. I don't understand how any decent person could vote for Donald Trump. But I know some decent people who will. So there's something happening here that I don't understand. I admit that. 

But I don't think we will see a repeat of 2016. The polls that year were off, though not by much. They were showing an upswing for Trump in the days before the election. Undecideds broke for Trump. Dissatisfied progressives voted third party or stayed at home. 

This year there are few undecideds. The progressives have lined up strongly behind Biden. From what I am seeing, they are not staying home. They are not voting third party. They are not holding back in working for the Democratic candidate. They are all in. 

There are a significant number of independents who voted for Trump last time who will not this time. These voters may lean conservative but they are appalled by the appalling record of the last four years. 

The polls were wrong in 2016. The pollsters have corrected their models to give more weight to working class whites. I think there is almost certainly some over-correction in these models and that working class whites will be more mixed in their support for Trump this year, although he still will win a majority of them. And several groups, including minorities and young people, will vote in much higher numbers. These groups will heavily favor Biden/Harris. 

That's how I see it. It could be very close. We may, God help us, once again be stuck with an Electoral College result that rewards the person who comes in second. But I think the data supports a Biden win, maybe a big win. 



Monday, October 26, 2020

A week to go

Yes, the Supreme Court news is grim. But that is out of our hands, and the focus right now should be on the election, which is still something we can all play a role in. There are solutions to a packed court. The Biden Administration and a Democratic-controlled Congress will be well-positioned to enact those solutions. 

In the meantime:

* This academic analysis of the polls reveals important trends: unlike 2016, people are not sitting this one out. And they’re not voting 3rd party. And the people who did those two things in 2016 were, and are, Democratic-leaning voters. They are showing up in droves this year to vote for Biden.

* (From CNN) “Across the country, Black voters are turning out in huge numbers. The stakes this year are especially high, they say, and nothing less than their health and safety is on the ballot.” And you know who they’re voting for at an 80-20 percent margin. 

*Don’t worry, Trump’s outreach to African American voters is going great. Or… maybe not

*Down-ballot races are also looking good for D’s. Also, control of the Senate

*The R’s who are realizing that Trump is a disaster for our country are doing the right thing and endorsing Biden. There should be more of them—but even a small percentage will be yet another difference-maker. 

*The main issue on voters’ minds? COVID-19. And we know how that’s going

*BTW, Joe told us so. Today, the Trump Administration continues to host super-spreader events. Thanks for infecting people in my in my state, Mr. President. Will you pay for them to get the same treatment you received? 

A week to go… don’t forget to vote!









 

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Two moments from the worst presidential debate in US history

It seems a little incredible to say, “well, that went worse than any of us imagined it could.”

 

But there is one unavoidable truth about this President: he maintains his ability to surprise. 

Last night’s presidential debate went poorly for both men, of course. Trump’s decision to throw a 90-minute tantrum as a way to drag down and/or diminish the front-runner will get most of the attention and discussion today. But Biden didn’t do terribly well, either. Some will argue that he managed to maintain some dignity and rode it out the best he could. Others will point to a couple gaffes (he was both for and against the Green New Deal) or say his occasional response-in-kind (“Shut up, man,”) made him look nearly as bad as Trump. 

 

But after all the sound and fury, there were two moments that stood out to me. The first was a statement by Trump that drew a lot of attention last night and will probably go down as one of his greatest hits; the “I would tell them to stand back and stand by” comment in reference to the Proud Boys. 

As many have noted, Trump here is signaling yet again that he embraces and encourages the worst elements of American society: the white supremacists, Nazis, and other hate groups (such as the Proud Boys) that have surfaced during his presidency. His indifference to racism and bigotry has given permission to these groups to consider themselves just another normal part of life in the United States. 

Just as Hitler used the Brown Shirts to violently suppress his opposition, Trump is signaling violent hate groups that they may be of use, if the election night results don’t go his way. This is, of course, terrifying to all of us who want the American experiment in representative democracy to survive and thrive. The prospect of the United States becoming another authoritarian, failed state has never been closer. 

I was struck by the phrase—it seemed too well-constructed and succinct to have been spontaneous; I suspect he had this in his pocket just in case he was asked directly to reject the idea of violence after this election. If it was planned, of course, that makes the use of this kind of language all the worse—but it’s clear that Trump went into this debate determined to dive headlong into the gutter. 


It's difficult to say why exactly he thought this nod to violence in front of the entire nation was a smart move. It’s hard for most rational people to see the method to his madness. But I suspect it makes perfect sense to him. God help us all. 

Biden also had a moment that he seemed to have prepared for—the defense of his son Hunter from Trump’s low-blow attack on Hunter’s drug abuse problem in past years. 

Trump and his closest cronies have spent a lot of time and effort trying to make Hunter Biden an issue, so it seems likely Joe Biden’s team had done their best to prepare for attacks concerning Hunter. In the chaotic give-and-take of the debate, the measured comments that Biden had probably prepared went out the window, but he did grab the opportunity to make a point that resonated with me, at least. 

 

Biden had begun talking about his late son, Beau, and his service in the military. Trump tried—pretty successfully—to shift the discussion to Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s other son. “I don’t know Beau,” Trump said dismissively, again showing his contempt, or at least indifference, towards those who have served in the military.

“Hunter got thrown out of the military… he was dishonorably discharged… for cocaine use,” Trump said.  

Honestly, I think this was the point where most people would’ve lost it. No amount of preparation can truly take the sting out of that kind of crass, personal attack. 

As a matter of fact, Hunter Biden was administratively discharged, not dishonorably discharged, for failing a drug test. But Joe Biden did something interesting here. He didn’t get into the weeds about exactly what happened to Hunter. He didn’t get into the mud about the improprieties and ethical questions surrounding Trump’s own children. 

Instead, he admitted the truth: his younger son had struggled with a drug addiction. He noted that many Americans have had similar problems, and like many, Hunter had overcome his addiction. “I’m proud of my son,” Joe Biden said. 

Have you ever heard Donald Trump speak with humility and compassion in this way? Have you ever even heard him say he’s proud of a family member? Maybe it’s happened. Certainly not in this type of situation, or on this type of stage. Whatever else we can conclude about the two men in this debate, one thing is clear: Hunter Biden has a good father. 

Humility, compassion, and grace are not the tools of trade that Donald Trump uses. He bullies, he rants, he lies, he brags. He will continue to do these things during this election season; he will continue to do these things if he is re-elected. 

With the polls clearly showing him behind and likely to lose, President Trump has decided to attempt to drag down his opponent, and the country, in such a way that the election itself will be as muddled and chaotic as his presentation Tuesday night. He has signaled, again, that he is willing to plunge the country into civil war rather than give up power. 

That is his intent. 


The only question that remains is, will we let him? 

 

Monday, July 06, 2020

A few more words on the 4th of July



I don't want to spend a lot of time on President Trump's 4th of July speeches. They weren't great, and the fact that he felt he had to make TWO of them speaks to the desperation he's been showing lately. That desperation also shows in the fact that the speeches were clearly aimed at dividing people and whipping up racial animosity. 


The President’s rhetoric, as this CNN piece notes, painted a frightening, simplistic view of current events and American history. “Trump's 40-minute speech was a master class in rhetorical deception. He lumped together the racists of the Confederacy with the figures on Mt. Rushmore, insisting they are all being reconsidered in the same way,” wrote Michael D'Antonio. “Several elected officials have ordered the removal of Confederate monuments in an effort to recognize the painful legacy of slavery, while the debate over monuments of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt is more nuanced, given their positive contributions to the nation. No sweeping effort is being made to remove all of these monuments and to suggest one exists amounts to sounding a false alarm.”

 

Kind of like yelling fire in a crowded theater. And Trump’s incendiary rhetoric continues to inflame some Americans. In Trump’s world, peaceful protestors are called “criminals” and “terrorists.” The leaders of the Black Lives Matter movement are branded “Marxists” (which some of them are) and therefore deemed to hate America (they don’t), under the assumption that no good American can be a Marxist (they can). 

This Red Scare tactic has become very popular on the right, it is a depressing reminder that the more things change, the more things stay the same. Not only do white conservatives reflexively resort to the Love It or Leave It construct, where any criticism of our obviously imperfect union means that we hate our country (we don’t), the critics have to be tarred with that tired cliché of Marxism—whether it fits them or not. 


When considering the speeches made by Trump this weekend, I was reminded of two other speeches, written 168 years apart, both made on or near the 4th of July holiday. One was by the freed slave Frederick Douglass, the other by the first African-American President, Barack Obama. Both men noted that our nation is far from perfect, Douglass, understandably, was more critical of the country he lived in than Obama was of the USA in 2008. But both are worth reading.   

Douglass noted that the BLM of 1776—the American Revolution—was not for the faint  of heart--that the Founding Fathers were willing to turn to violence, even (gasp!) willing to destroy private property, to pursue justice and freedom. 

“To say now that America was right, and England wrong, is exceedingly easy. Everybody can say it; the dastard, not less than the noble brave, can flippantly discant on the tyranny of England towards the American Colonies,” Douglass wrote. “It is fashionable to do so; but there was a time when, to pronounce against England, and in favor of the cause of the colonies, tried men's souls. They who did so were accounted in their day plotters of mischief, agitators and rebels, dangerous men.” 

 

“…They were peace men; but they preferred revolution to peaceful submission to bondage. They were quiet men; but they did not shrink from agitating against oppression. They showed forbearance; but that they knew its limits. They believed in order; but not in the order of tyranny.”

Douglass, an escaped slave living in a time where slavery was legal and accepted in many parts of the US, goes on to deliver a blistering critique of our country at the time, one where whites celebrated the 4th of July while blacks remained in chains. Douglass described nothing less than a kind of reverse-image American exceptionalism in 1852.

“Go where you may, search where you will, roam through all the monarchies and despotisms of the Old World, travel through South America, search out every abuse, and when you have found the last, lay your facts by the side of the everyday practices of this nation, and you will say with me, that, for revolting barbarity and shameless hypocrisy, America reigns without a rival.”

The speech is a reminder of how horrible the sin of slavery was—and what an affront it was to the founding principles of this country. The speech also reminds us that racism and discrimination should be the enemy of every American. We fought a war over this issue; in many ways that war is not over. We all have a role to play to deciding whether the United States can live up to its ideals today, in this time. 

 

Obama came from a different time. He, much more than Douglass, had reason to support American exceptionalism. Although his detractors then and now called him a socialist and a radical (he is neither), Obama was a product of middle America and was proud of his heritage; his speech from 2008 describes his grandfather, who fought with Patton’s army in WWII, and his grandmother, who worked in a factory as part of the war effort.  

 

Obama explored the concept of what being an American patriot really means. “It is worth considering the meaning of patriotism because the question of who is – or is not – a patriot all too often poisons our political debates, in ways that divide us rather than bringing us together,” he noted. He added that as a politician, he would not question the patriotism of other Americans—and took pains to note that he was running against a great American patriot, John McCain. 

Ah, for the days when the leaders of our country showed this kind of civility when running for office. It wasn’t that long ago. It needn’t be considered a lost art. 

But Obama also delivered a message that seems timely now—that dissent can be patriotic. “Precisely because America isn’t perfect, precisely because our ideals constantly demand more from us, patriotism can never be defined as loyalty to any particular leader or government or policy,” he said. “As Mark Twain, that greatest of American satirists and proud son of Missouri, once wrote, ‘Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.’

“We may hope that our leaders and our government stand up for our ideals, and there are many times in our history when that’s occurred. But when our laws, our leaders or our government are out of alignment with our ideals, then the dissent of ordinary Americans may prove to be one of the truest expressions of patriotism.”

 

It's easy to talk about American exceptionalism—nothing is easier than saying, “We’re No.#1.” And few things are more mindless, or meaningless in the long run, that simply boasting about your own tribe. 

If American exceptionalism means anything, it means that we have ideas that stand the test of time, that rise above the petty politics of the day. Surely the idea that all people are created equal is one of the greatest ideas any nation has embraced. And it is one of the hardest to put into practice. 

Our current strife in the streets, during hard times of pandemic and economic challenges, is simply an attempt to make the United States live up to its ideals. Donald Trump doesn’t understand that. Some of his followers will never see it and will never even try to grasp the idea that dissent is patriotic. 

But most Americans do see the patriotism of the BLM movement. Most do recognize that our nation has fallen short of its ideals, and that if we are truly patriots, we must join the struggle to make our nation great—not just in the words of a slogan, but in truth. We must work to make real the message of the BLM movement—that in America, black lives matter just as much as white lives do. 

Douglass and Obama understood the challenge. Trump wants to retreat to an illusion that ignores the challenge, and thus deepens the injustice. 

 

One year from now, on July 4, 2021, what will each of us say about how we individually rose to this challenge? Which vision did we embrace? What road did we choose? 

 

 

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

The lesson Democrats learned from Trump supporters:

You don’t always have to love the guy at the top. It’s the base that defines the heart of the party. 

My conservative friends, who consume mostly right-wing media sites, are convinced that Democrats don’t enthusiastically support Joe Biden. With Fox News and other sources feeding them the usual tales of Democratic disarray, chaos, and dissent, they are asking questions like, “Will left-wing Democrats mount a write-in campaign against Biden?”

This breathless wishful thinking can be understood, to some degree. Biden certainly is not perfect. His age stands in stark contrast to the youth movement that has been a hallmark of recent Democratic politics. He is white, at time when racism and race relations have become the most pressing issues of the day. He’s consistently more moderate and cautious than his base. And he can be awkward, blurting out things that have to be walked back at times.

But the polling shows no disarray or second thoughts about the presumptive nominee. Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are solidly behind Biden. And he leads Trump today in both national and swing-state polls. 

So the question rings from a million social media posts: “How can Democrats and liberals support a guy with so many flaws??”

Hey, have you noticed who is in the White House right now?

Running from the President


It’s become a cliched part of political theater in the Trump era: Republicans, both elected officials and rank-and-file voters, dancing as hard as they can to make the point that, even if they don’t support the President’s actions or words, they still support Donald Trump!

Clips of Republican lawmakers literally running away from cameras as journalist ask their thoughts on the latest outrageous tweet from Trump have become the norm. Unlike Trump, GOP officials are not always comfortable with alienating voters who aren’t in their base. They don’t want to say publicly that they support the racism, the misogyny, the bullying, the temper-driven policies. Yet they know they can’t stay in office if they go against Trump—the base will not stand for any sign of disloyalty, and Trump has no loyalty himself; he will turn viciously against any GOP official who crosses him in the least.

The base itself does a slightly different two-step: they concede that Trump is rough, crude, a “salty sailor,” but they like him because he “gets things done.” And the fact that many of those things being done consist of policies that are divisive and hateful, well, the GOP Man-On-the-Street doesn’t know the details, he’s not a scientist/doctor/legal scholar. 


It’s a kind of circular process that Trump has used to his advantage: feed the emotions, starve the intellect, ride the whirlwind as long as he can. He really does believe you can fool most of the people most of the time.

The GOP base also ignores the head-scratching contradictions of Trump’s story: a New York City elitist millionaire who went to tony East Coast schools and partied with the rich and famous has been embraced as a Man of the People by rural and small-town voters. As with so many things in modern politics, it works better if you don’t think too much about it.

Protests and primaries—Biden becomes a figurehead for a larger movement

It’s often been noted that Biden has been relatively quiet as he moves steadily toward nomination. This is of course partly a result of events on the ground: the pandemic  and now protests have sucked the oxygen out of the room to a large extent. The COVID-19 crisis also made a drawn-out primary logistically unworkable, as the base—especially African Americans—rallied around the most electable candidate. And with our current president creating so many problems for himself, it makes sense for the former Vice President to sit back and let Trump self-destruct.

But another element is in play: Biden has thrived as a politician who is willing to subsume his own ego to a larger movement. He relished his role as the #2 man in the Obama administration, finding ways to support his boss, stepping up occasionally to break ground on issues that were tough for Obama to take a stand on (gay marriage comes to mind), and generally providing a softer, human response to the riotous warfare of modern American politics.

It could be said he is doing the same today—softening the hard edges of the American Left, providing a more moderate and soothing counterpart to the AOCs and Al Sharptons on our screens. What many Americans—and Democrats most particularly—long for is a more civil society, one that has a place for compassion, empathy, and decency. For all his flaws, Biden can provide that.

He may not be on the barricades; he will not call for revolution. But the bottom line is that the base knows Biden has their backs, just as he had Obama’s back. Just as with Trump supporters, the Democratic base knows his heart. And they think it’s in the right place.

What that statement suggests about the two parties is something for another post.