Clinton: still on track for a landslide

I know it goes against the current political conventional wisdom, but I still think there’s a pretty good chance that Donald Trump will lose by historic margins come this fall.

This latest goof-up by the Trump campaign is instructive, not because his campaign is incompetent (he’s hiring a lot of experienced pros) but because the candidate is going to continue to be true to his instincts, which will not work in the general election.

In this case, a Trump campaign flack accidently emailed Politico the latest plan on attacking Hillary Clinton over, get this, Whitewater—because Trump is, apparently, going to re-litigate the first Clinton Presidency and go all-in on the host of conspiracy theories that were whipped up by conservative scandal-mongers the first time around.

Raise your hand if that sounds like a winning strategy.

With the polls showing Trump tied with, or even leading Clinton, there’s been a lot of hand-wringing and ordering of fainting couches. Sanders supporters are jumping up and down saying they Told Us So—as if their candidate’s continuing pointless fight against Hillary isn’t helping to depress her numbers.

Yes, Trump demolished the Republican primary field with his nasty, juvenile, name-calling approach. Yes, he routinely lied and changed positions and showed his ignorance and got away with it. Yes, mainstream Republican candidates were powerless to bring the debate back to an adult level.

But look who he was running against. And more importantly, look who he was trying to win over.

The Republican base is completely comfortable with a no-facts, no-class, no-experience candidate. They WANT to blow up the country in order to save it. Years of fear-mongering and race (and gender)-baiting by Fox and other conservative media outlets have permanently cooked a sense of hopelessness, grievance, and anger into their political mindset. They want an outsider, and the more outside conventional standards, the better.

Trump blatantly lies and panders? They don’t care. Trump acts like a schoolyard bully? They love it. Trump talks casually about nuclear war? Hey, they learned in Sunday School that eventually Armageddon will come, so they don’t mind taking their chances. I mean, could that really be worse than continuing the policies of Obama? Really?

The Republican base has chosen not to be rational, not to be judicious, not to be, to use the appropriate word, conservative this time around. They don’t want an election—they want a primal scream. Trump fits the bill to a T.

The rest of the electorate will make a different choice. And as week after week of conspiracy theories, wild claims, hostility to women and minorities, and impossibly irresponsible policy stances pile up, many conservative and conservative-leaning voters who can still think rationally about the future of their country will start to waver. They may not vote for Hillary in huge numbers, but enough of them will, and many others will simply balk at pulling the Trump lever.

Trump is who he is. We can all see it. The majority of Americans are simply not going to fall for this huckster.

Trump seals the deal in Indiana

As noted below, I polled my conservative relatives at Christmas and found *none* of them seemed to like Donald Trump. They didn't trust his commitment to conservatives principles, they were offended by his superficial and obnoxious personality, and they were worried by his temperment and unpredictability.

I think most Hoosiers probably agreed with them, at that point. But now that it's down to Trump and Cruz, I expect many Indiana voters will have overcome their misgivings. I would guess that Trump will win by a big margin. Cruz has a toxic personality, despite his piousness. And conservatives want to beat Hillary. They think Trump is their best chance for doing that. So it will be Trump, probably by a large margin. 

On the Democratic side... I'm guessing Hillary, since there's a significant African-American voting bloc. There are white Democratic voters in Indiana. I knew of one, growing up. But I don't have a good sense of how they'll vote. Probably Clinton's relatively good standing with unions will help her too. So call it a Hillary win. 

So, here we are. Conservative voters continue to sow the wind. It will be an interesting fall.