Well, I called that one!
Just chalk it down to my signature brand of Xtreem Punditry (TM) that after I posted a entry saying that nothing much would happen at last week's presidential debate and that it was unlikely to change the race... well, you know what happened.
So basically if Obama loses it's my fault, because I jinxed him.
At the risk of sounding even MORE out of touch, I still don't know why words like "disaster" and "debacle" have been used frequently to describe Obama's performance. I thought he was thoughtful, articulate, and maybe a little too cautious. I thought Romney was energetic, aggressive, and just all over the place with his contradictions, inaccuracies, and reversals. But neither really did anything surprising or, I thought, very memorable.
That's why I get the big bucks, obviously.
So now that I've been historically wrong about the first debate, let me stick my neck out further on the VP clash coming up tonight.
I predict a high viewership, not just because people want to see if Biden can redeem the ticket to some extent, but because conservatives find Biden a kind of catnip, he's the guy they can't get enough of, they hang on his every faux pas (and to be fair there have been a few) and awkward comment. They probably don't like to admit it but they love the guy. He's their George Bush (either one), kind of a doofus, highly likely to embarrass the country in some novel and entertaining way.
Except of course, that's perception and not entirely the reality. Biden is also an experienced statesman who can be quite insightful and inspiring. Don't know which guy will show up tonight, maybe both. But I'm not betting against him.
Ryan could also surprise us. He's a smart guy, he could certainly *sound* convincing in talking about debt and deficits. There's plenty of data out there that he's practiced at spinning in ways that strengthen the GOP's position. Whether Biden can stay with him is a good question. What Ryan has to watch out for is the classic rookie mistakes: talking to fast, letting his voice get too whiney, going off on tangents... I would expect him to be well-prepared but it is a lot of pressure on a guy who has never been on a stage quite like this one. His convention speech was the closest thing and he did... OK. Lots of arguable claims of course--the difference is the fact checker will be on stage with him. How that goes will be very interesting.
The first debate was won by the guy who showed the most energy and personality. It's possible the second one will go the same way. Which of these two candidates is more likely to pass that test?
Everybody, now: TIME WILL TELL...
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Wednesday, October 03, 2012
Pre-debate musings
I haven't done a ton of commenting on the presidential race because, frankly, it's been a little boring. President Obama has maintained a solid, if sometimes small, lead. He's looking very good in the swing states that will determine the electoral vote. The weak economy continues to be his biggest burden, and there have been some problems with foreign policy as well. But overall, he's been able to stay on track and in the lead.
Romney has continued to look like a weak and over-matched candidate, exactly the way Kerry did in 2004. Like Kerry, he's managed to get the base behind him, but their dislike of Obama is much stronger than their affection for Romney. And he's made some appalling mistakes: the "47 percent" tape is an example. It's true that he made those remarks behind closed doors; what's just as true is that they are inexcusable in any context. Would Ronald Reagan have made remarks like that? I don't think so.
The bottom line is that the unhappiness that Americans feel with the job Obama has done is not strong enough to overcome their distrust of a candidate who seems out of touch, unqualified, and temperamentally unsuited to leading this country. I understand that Mitt Romney has done some impressive things in his career. Inventing Obamacare, for example. But after all this time, all this campaigning, does anyone really feel like they know him or know what kind of president he'll make?
And yet this was the best the Republican Party could offer this year. As doomed as Mitt seems, can you imagine how Gingrich or Perry would be doing now? When your party insists on being out of touch with reality, when it is willing to write off whole chunks of the electorate (and the GOP has been doing just that since long before Romney launched his campaign), when it is bereft of any ideas outside of cutting taxes and letting the market (chance) decide, you end up where the GOP is now. Very popular with a minority, confounding to the rest of us, and simply unable to amass a winning coalition of voters.
Can the debates change that? I don't see how. No matter what your opinion of Obama is as a debater, it seems unlikely that he won't be able to stay on his talking points and maintain his "no-drama" demeanor. The guy is a basketball nut--he is very familiar with the concept of running out the clock.
And at this point, that's all he needs to do.
Romney has continued to look like a weak and over-matched candidate, exactly the way Kerry did in 2004. Like Kerry, he's managed to get the base behind him, but their dislike of Obama is much stronger than their affection for Romney. And he's made some appalling mistakes: the "47 percent" tape is an example. It's true that he made those remarks behind closed doors; what's just as true is that they are inexcusable in any context. Would Ronald Reagan have made remarks like that? I don't think so.
The bottom line is that the unhappiness that Americans feel with the job Obama has done is not strong enough to overcome their distrust of a candidate who seems out of touch, unqualified, and temperamentally unsuited to leading this country. I understand that Mitt Romney has done some impressive things in his career. Inventing Obamacare, for example. But after all this time, all this campaigning, does anyone really feel like they know him or know what kind of president he'll make?
And yet this was the best the Republican Party could offer this year. As doomed as Mitt seems, can you imagine how Gingrich or Perry would be doing now? When your party insists on being out of touch with reality, when it is willing to write off whole chunks of the electorate (and the GOP has been doing just that since long before Romney launched his campaign), when it is bereft of any ideas outside of cutting taxes and letting the market (chance) decide, you end up where the GOP is now. Very popular with a minority, confounding to the rest of us, and simply unable to amass a winning coalition of voters.
Can the debates change that? I don't see how. No matter what your opinion of Obama is as a debater, it seems unlikely that he won't be able to stay on his talking points and maintain his "no-drama" demeanor. The guy is a basketball nut--he is very familiar with the concept of running out the clock.
And at this point, that's all he needs to do.
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