Pre-debate musings

I haven't done a ton of commenting on the presidential race because, frankly, it's been a little boring. President Obama has maintained a solid, if sometimes small, lead. He's looking very good in the swing states that will determine the electoral vote. The weak economy continues to be his biggest burden, and there have been some problems with foreign policy as well. But overall, he's been able to stay on track and in the lead.

Romney has continued to look like a weak and over-matched candidate, exactly the way Kerry did in 2004. Like Kerry, he's managed to get the base behind him, but their dislike of Obama is much stronger than their affection for Romney. And he's made some appalling mistakes: the "47 percent" tape is an example. It's true that he made those remarks behind closed doors; what's just as true is that they are inexcusable in any context. Would Ronald Reagan have made remarks like that? I don't think so.

The bottom line is that the unhappiness that Americans feel with the job Obama has done is not strong enough to overcome their distrust of a candidate who seems out of touch, unqualified, and temperamentally unsuited to leading this country. I understand that Mitt Romney has done some impressive things in his career. Inventing Obamacare, for example. But after all this time, all this campaigning, does anyone really feel like they know him or know what kind of president he'll make?

And yet this was the best the Republican Party could offer this year. As doomed as Mitt seems, can you imagine how Gingrich or Perry would be doing now? When your party insists on being out of touch with reality, when it is willing to write off whole chunks of the electorate (and the GOP has been doing just that since long before Romney launched his campaign), when it is bereft of any ideas outside of cutting taxes and letting the market (chance) decide, you end up where the GOP is now. Very popular with a minority, confounding to the rest of us, and simply unable to amass a winning coalition of voters.

Can the debates change that? I don't see how. No matter what your opinion of Obama is as a debater, it seems unlikely that he won't be able to stay on his talking points and maintain his "no-drama" demeanor. The guy is a basketball nut--he is very familiar with the concept of running out the clock.

And at this point, that's all he needs to do.