Are Trump-supporting areas seeing higher rates of COVID? A quick look at four counties

Lately, there has been a number of stories in the media about how COVID-19 rates are worse in Red states. The narrative is that Trump-supporting areas—where people are more likely to distrust vaccines and scorn safety precautions such as mask wearing—have higher rates of COVID infections and deaths. It does stand to reason—and the data seems to be backing it up. 

The story is relevant because it is yet another piece of evidence on why public health measures matter. Vaccinations and masks have become so politicized that it’s depressing to even debate it anymore, but since these actions continue to have life-and-death consequences, it seems that presenting the evidence is still important. 

I have a number of conservative friends who don’t trust the numbers, of course. Media, scientists, health care providers, government, industry—everyone is lying to us. It’s nearly impossible to argue with that mindset. But a lot of Red-state Americans are not blindly loyal to the MAGA approach to politics and public issues. They are still reachable. 

So, I did a quick look at four counties. One, Howard County in Indiana, is where I was born and raised. A reliably conservative area. Another, Hennepin County in Minnesota, is where I live now—about as Blue a county as you will find in the Midwest. 

For comparison, I included a Blue county in Indiana, Lake County. And a Red county in Minn., Douglas County. Those last two were chosen somewhat at random, I just picked areas that were likely to be Blue or Red. Douglas County is mostly rural but does include a relatively big town, Alexandria. Lake County is one of the rare Blue counties in Indiana. Its northern half is part of the Chicago metro area, but the county also includes suburban and rural areas. 

The findings were pretty much in line with what others have found: higher cases per 100,000 and higher deaths per 100,000 in the red counties. I’ve also included the vote percentages from the 2020 election, to help establish how conservative/progressive the area is in general. In addition, I’ve included vaccination rates—and found a surprise there. Lake County’s vaccination rate is still pretty low. But it does have a lower rate of cases than the Red counties. 

Hennepin comes out as the lowest in cases and deaths. Howard edges out Douglas in terms of cases—but Douglas just barely has a higher death rate than Lake, which is interesting. The two also have nearly identical vaccination rates. 

 

The comparison does not include hospitalization data, or the rate of breakthrough infections for those already vaccinated. So there’s more to the story—but this does provide some useful data. 

 

Here’s the link to the CNN site that gives county-by-county COVID numbers (the interactive graphic is from the much-maligned MSM site, but the numbers are from John Hopkins, which is a pretty good source, if science matters… ) The election numbers were found just by googling county and state websites. Another good resource is COVID Act Now. 

These COVID-19 numbers are too high in all four counties. There is more we could and should do to be responsible in protecting our communities. But in this small sample, Blue counties do have better numbers. 

Hennepin County (MN) 
Cases per 100K: 12,879
Deaths per 100k: 156

Vaccination rate: 71%

Biden: 70%

Trump: 27%

 

Howard County (IN)
Cases per 100K: 18,520

Deaths per 100K: 366

Vaccination rate: 47.3%

Trump: 65%

Biden: 33%

 

Lake County (IN)
Cases per 100K: 14,021

Deaths per 100K: 246

Vaccination rate: 56%

Biden: 57%
Trump: 42%

Douglas County (MN)
Cases per 100K: 18,243

Deaths per 100K: 249

Vaccination rate: 56%

Trump: 65%

Biden: 33%

The Rodgers Deal

Sports legends commonly have comeback stories. So perhaps Aaron Rodgers can recover from his disastrous decision to put teammates at risk and lie to the public about his “immunized” status—and his worse reaction to being found out.

I mean, who knows—in a year maybe he will have dyed his hair blond and gone to a Halloween party as SNL character Dr. Weknowdis. “Vaccines are safe and effective. Weknowdis.” Big laughs.

 
But right now, it looks like he has put at risk not just the health of those around him, but his own reputation and legacy. And he has only himself to blame—though you wouldn’t know it from the bitter, sarcastic language he used to defend himself on Friday—language that dripped of privilege and wounded pride. Rodgers has always had a reputation of having an ego, which is not at all uncommon among elite athletes, but the defensiveness he showed on the weekly radio show that he is featured on was another body blow to his image as a good-natured, likable guy.

To me, the worst aspect of that spectacle was his cynical use of MAGA terminology. “Witch hunt.” “Woke mob.” “Cancel culture.” This brazen play to the worst instincts of the Fox-News-watching Joe Six-Packs out there shows a cold, calculating side to Rodgers, one that would rather turn to divisiveness and lashing out rather than admit a mistake.

For all Rodgers' talk of bodily autonomy and doing research, the choice that both elite athletes and average Americans have faced is pretty straightforward—respect the expertise of the medical and scientific community and take steps to protect themselves and those around them, or indulge conspiracy theories or self-serving “research” that is reliant on the kind of things that Rodgers touts: alternative treatments that have little evidence of efficacy. 

The math here is not hard:
*Millions of human beings have been vaccinated against COVID-19. 
*The incidence of serious negative reactions is extremely rare. 
* Tens of thousands of athletes have been vaccinated. 
*Again, almost none have reported serious reactions or side effects. 

Instead of using common sense, Rodgers has shown a profound lack of respect: for the safety of those around him, for the intelligence of his fans and the public at large, and for the institution of football, which emphasizes teamwork and playing by the rules. 
 
Rodgers thought he was above the latter. He was wrong. The sooner he comes to terms with that, the sooner he can begin to repair the damage. 

 

 

Just in time for Halloween,Trump followers ramp up the violent rhetoric 

Last Monday, a man in Boise, Idaho asked a question that summed up where many Trump supporters’ heads seem to be these days:

“’At this point, we're living under corporate and medical fascism. This is tyranny. When do we get to use the guns?’ the man asked, to applause from the crowd. ‘No, and I’m not – that’s not a joke. I’m not saying it like that. I mean, literally, where’s the line? How many elections are they going to steal before we kill these people?’”

 

“When can we start killing people who don’t follow Trump?” may not be the question that *every* Republican is asking. In fact, the Boise Trump supporter was immediately rebuked by the host of the conservative forum. But the fact that conservative events draw people asking this kind of question, in public, with cameras rolling, is pretty concerning. 

Because some of them eventually may decide there’s no time like the present. 

Don’t believe me? Think it was just some lone nutjob blowing off steam? 

“Tell the truth or your three kids will be fatally shot.” That’s the threat a Republican election official received in Philadelphia—because he didn’t try to overturn results showing Biden winning the election there last November. The threat included the official’s address, the names of his three kids, and a picture of his house. 

Or, how about this: a school board president in Nevada has received death threats, including messages saying she should be hung or shot, along with disturbing images, after a school board meeting where a large crowd demanded that the local school district not enact a mask mandate. 

This at a time when some states are seeing rising cases of COVID among kids creating a dynamic where more children are testing positive than adults. This report from Michigan noted that schools and classes are shutting down because of the new infections. 

But let’s not think about the sick kids; there’s tyranny to oppose, and non-Trump supporters to threaten. 

I know this is unpleasant and troubling stuff to think about. I know I’m presenting it in pretty stark and pessimistic terms. But this is based on events that are really going on, right now. It’s not fearmongering if there is a real threat. And how can we not see this river of abuse and promises of violence as anything but a credible threat?

On a daily basis, we hear Trump supporters express anger about those who voted for Biden, or those who support vaccination and mask mandates to prevent COVID-19, or those who don’t want to censor teachers for being honest about racism in the USA. 

The fact is, the leaders of the Republican party have created an extreme atmosphere of hate and fear among their followers. They have pushed a storyline that an election was stolen from Republicans, when they know that is not true. And they have done it intentionally, because they believe it will motivate their voters—at a time when conservative voters are declining in numbers overall. They have to get as many voters as possible out to every election, by any means necessary. They lose power otherwise. 

So, it’s come to this. A rancid, hateful undercurrent of violence among conservatives, especially among fervent Trump supporters. They stormed the Capital, calling for Mike Pence’s life. They come to conservative events begging for permission to start executing people they disagree with. They are sending death threats on a regular basis to public officials. 

I want to believe that we can come back from the brink. In fact, I have to believe that—I have to have hope that this country is not as scary a place as it seems to be. Whether that hope is justified rests on the decisions and judgment of the conservatives in this country. They can continue to wallow in a political cesspool and indulge the worst elements of our society, or they can choose to value truth, human rights, and the principles of democracy. 

What will it be?

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