Are Trump-supporting areas seeing higher rates of COVID? A quick look at four counties

Lately, there has been a number of stories in the media about how COVID-19 rates are worse in Red states. The narrative is that Trump-supporting areas—where people are more likely to distrust vaccines and scorn safety precautions such as mask wearing—have higher rates of COVID infections and deaths. It does stand to reason—and the data seems to be backing it up. 

The story is relevant because it is yet another piece of evidence on why public health measures matter. Vaccinations and masks have become so politicized that it’s depressing to even debate it anymore, but since these actions continue to have life-and-death consequences, it seems that presenting the evidence is still important. 

I have a number of conservative friends who don’t trust the numbers, of course. Media, scientists, health care providers, government, industry—everyone is lying to us. It’s nearly impossible to argue with that mindset. But a lot of Red-state Americans are not blindly loyal to the MAGA approach to politics and public issues. They are still reachable. 

So, I did a quick look at four counties. One, Howard County in Indiana, is where I was born and raised. A reliably conservative area. Another, Hennepin County in Minnesota, is where I live now—about as Blue a county as you will find in the Midwest. 

For comparison, I included a Blue county in Indiana, Lake County. And a Red county in Minn., Douglas County. Those last two were chosen somewhat at random, I just picked areas that were likely to be Blue or Red. Douglas County is mostly rural but does include a relatively big town, Alexandria. Lake County is one of the rare Blue counties in Indiana. Its northern half is part of the Chicago metro area, but the county also includes suburban and rural areas. 

The findings were pretty much in line with what others have found: higher cases per 100,000 and higher deaths per 100,000 in the red counties. I’ve also included the vote percentages from the 2020 election, to help establish how conservative/progressive the area is in general. In addition, I’ve included vaccination rates—and found a surprise there. Lake County’s vaccination rate is still pretty low. But it does have a lower rate of cases than the Red counties. 

Hennepin comes out as the lowest in cases and deaths. Howard edges out Douglas in terms of cases—but Douglas just barely has a higher death rate than Lake, which is interesting. The two also have nearly identical vaccination rates. 

 

The comparison does not include hospitalization data, or the rate of breakthrough infections for those already vaccinated. So there’s more to the story—but this does provide some useful data. 

 

Here’s the link to the CNN site that gives county-by-county COVID numbers (the interactive graphic is from the much-maligned MSM site, but the numbers are from John Hopkins, which is a pretty good source, if science matters… ) The election numbers were found just by googling county and state websites. Another good resource is COVID Act Now. 

These COVID-19 numbers are too high in all four counties. There is more we could and should do to be responsible in protecting our communities. But in this small sample, Blue counties do have better numbers. 

Hennepin County (MN) 
Cases per 100K: 12,879
Deaths per 100k: 156

Vaccination rate: 71%

Biden: 70%

Trump: 27%

 

Howard County (IN)
Cases per 100K: 18,520

Deaths per 100K: 366

Vaccination rate: 47.3%

Trump: 65%

Biden: 33%

 

Lake County (IN)
Cases per 100K: 14,021

Deaths per 100K: 246

Vaccination rate: 56%

Biden: 57%
Trump: 42%

Douglas County (MN)
Cases per 100K: 18,243

Deaths per 100K: 249

Vaccination rate: 56%

Trump: 65%

Biden: 33%