The Republican National Convention wrapped up last Thursday night, and it was conducted with about the level the competence and civility
we’ve come to expect from a Trump campaign production. Media outlets used the word “dark” to describe Trump’s message after his speech Thursday night, but another two-word description was also common for the convention as a whole: “dumpster fire.”
It was run poorly. There was public squabbling on the floor of the convention. It featured a rather lackluster lineup of speakers, including soap opera stars, marginal political figures, and of course, many, many members of Trump’s family.
The entire convention was bookended by two disasters: Melania’s plagiarism of Michelle Obama, and Trump’s Friday-morning talk to supporters,
in which he reverted to style and went on a vindictive rant about Ted Cruz. Both
were telling: the Melania speech neatly demonstrated both the campaign’s lack
of competence and its penchant for denial—it took days for the Trump campaign
to admit this was a simple mistake by a speechwriter helping Mrs. Trump with
her speech. We got a preview of how small but significantly embarrassing
mistakes would be handled by a Trump Administration: chaotically.
The Trump press conference on Friday morning nicely undermined the more
conventional speech the night before (if by conventional you can include
something that many said read better in the original German). At the event, instead
of talking up party unity, Trump attacked Cruz and Kasich again, re-litigating
old battles and puffing himself up in his typical manner. He made veiled
threats to the GOP establishment, which he said had better raise enough money;
and he said Republicans “have no choice” but to vote for him.
Of course, this tantrum was brought about in part by Cruz
and Kasich, neither of whom have endorsed Trump. Cruz’ Wednesday night speech, delivered before
poor Mike Pence accepted the nomination as VP, was another disaster, one that
would be unthinkable in a normal election year. The candidate who came in 2nd
to Trump gave an entire speech without endorsing the GOP nominee, and in fact,
told Republicans to “vote their conscience.” The convention hall filled with
boos. That’s some great prime time TV, right there.
This points directly to the other huge stain on this convention—many establishment Republicans, to their credit, cannot support Trump. The extreme Tea Party wing, after decades of being sold a bill of goods chock full of racism, resentment, and victimization, are solidly behind the hateful rhetoric of Trump. The establishment, on the other hand, can at least see that Trump has no real allegiance to the GOP or any of its traditional issues.
So we saw a convention where a GOP presidential contender who is also the Governor of Ohio skipped a convention in Cleveland. Other top Republican senators and leaders were also not in attendance. The unspoken message of Cruz, Kasich and many others was: “We’re not going to be associated with this clown. We’ll lose this year, regroup, and come back in 2020.”
The defections and pratfalls of the convention probably
played a role in its underwhelming ratings. After much was made of Trump’s
mastery of the television medium and ability to put on a great show, the
convention itself was a letdown. Ratings were middling, with his big speech
pulling in about 2 million more viewers than saw Romney’s speech four years
ago, but fewer than the number who watched John McCain’s acceptance speech in
’08.
So where do we stand, now that the dumpster fire is
guttering out? Conventional wisdom says candidates get a post-convention bump
in the polls—I wouldn’t expect much of one after that performance, but maybe
we’ll see a small one for Trump.
To me, the dynamics of the race stay the same: Trump pulls
in the very rabid right-wing base and a sizeable portion of conservative leaners,
who, in typical American fashion, will stick with their team regardless of the
quality of the product. But he continues to alienate African-Americans. Latinos, women,
and college-educated whites. Did the convention change that? No. Did it show
him pivoting toward the center, as some predicted? No. Did it paint him as more
human and likable, as many expect the Democratic convention to attempt to do
for Hillary? No.The only things the Republican Party takes away from this convention are negatives.
Preaching to the choir does not usually win you presidential elections. Everyone keeps saying this year is different. I am not convinced
that it’s THAT different. After this ugly, divisive convention following an ugly, divisive primary, are there really that many people who don’t see
Donald Trump for what he is? I keep calling this a national IQ test. And
nothing from the Republican National Convention has suggested to me that this nation is dumb enough to elect Donald Trump.
(One of the songs Trump plays at his campaign events. Seriously.)
