One day to go
I generally make predictions for these things. I'm gonna forgo the 270 to Win maps and other claptrap and just point out what I've been saying for four years:
Donald Trump was not popular when he won the presidency. He has never been a popular president. He is not popular now, not with the majority of the American people. This is the foundation.
People are turning out in historic numbers to vote. Why? Because they think the economy is great? Because they think the current administration has done a great job protecting us from COVID-19? Because they feel good about where the country is re: race relations?
A fair number of people support this President. Many of that number support him strongly. I don't understand that. I don't understand how any decent person could vote for Donald Trump. But I know some decent people who will. So there's something happening here that I don't understand. I admit that.
But I don't think we will see a repeat of 2016. The polls that year were off, though not by much. They were showing an upswing for Trump in the days before the election. Undecideds broke for Trump. Dissatisfied progressives voted third party or stayed at home.
This year there are few undecideds. The progressives have lined up strongly behind Biden. From what I am seeing, they are not staying home. They are not voting third party. They are not holding back in working for the Democratic candidate. They are all in.
There are a significant number of independents who voted for Trump last time who will not this time. These voters may lean conservative but they are appalled by the appalling record of the last four years.
The polls were wrong in 2016. The pollsters have corrected their models to give more weight to working class whites. I think there is almost certainly some over-correction in these models and that working class whites will be more mixed in their support for Trump this year, although he still will win a majority of them. And several groups, including minorities and young people, will vote in much higher numbers. These groups will heavily favor Biden/Harris.
That's how I see it. It could be very close. We may, God help us, once again be stuck with an Electoral College result that rewards the person who comes in second. But I think the data supports a Biden win, maybe a big win.
