The roller coaster has a few twists and turns left in it. In the latest Star Tribune poll, Mike Hatch is leading 44 to 41 percent over Tim Pawlenty.
Now, the Strib Poll (sorry, the Minnesota Poll) is the bane of Republicans in the state. They hate it. They believe it always favors the Democrats. They have some reason to think that. It does not have the best record. But there have been some pretty wacky races in Minnesota in the past decade. Jesse Ventura was one that no one saw coming. The Mondale/Coleman matchup after Wellstone’s death was a pollster’s nightmare, because the race was in complete chaos.
And these results are within the margin of error. So fine, call it a tossup. But note that the daily trends show Hatch losing ground on Tuesday through Sunday, and gaining ground since then. So the E85 Republican Whore story hurt him, but then he seemed to recover. That’s one way to read it. Let’s argue that this reading is accurate, then Hatch is trending up, and it’s possible Pawlenty—who continues to struggle in the 40-41 percent range—has hit his ceiling.
Or, you could read it another way. Pawlenty, with help from Hatch has managed to keep this thing within the margin of error as we hit Election Day. The poll is probably giving Hatch a few extra points, as it has done with Democratic candidates in the past. The Republican GOTV will overcome any remaining deficit.
Either scenario is possible.
Ok, it’s a tossup.
1 comment:
Ok so Mike Hatch lost. I attribute it to his "Republican Hack" comment (or was it "Republican Whack"). But after finding out the rest of the results, who cares! What a great night if you were rooting for the Republicans.
Is it a double standard to defend Hatch when he has a Macaca moment? I think he might have turned off a lot of Democrats with that little moment. I thought Democrats didn't do that.
Still, I would have preferred Hatch. It would have been fun to have him fight like heck for the little guy and create a stir.
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