I've been completely wiped out by the flu for the better part of a week, so I haven't been up for posting lately. Turns out this year's flu is a different strain than the flu shot was designed for. So can I get my money back?
The race in Wisconsin has been really fascinating and much closer than I think most expected. Clinton has put in a great effort in a state that is pretty well suited to her. And though most expect Obama to pull it out, it should be a close race. I've noticed signs of high turnout, and that's usually good news for Obama. But I wouldn't be totally shocked if Clinton pulls an upset.
predictions
D: Obama wins by under a 10 pt. margin.
R: McCain wins handily. Huckabee has been campaigning hard, but I think he's probably won his last primary.
Oh yeah, Hawaii,
Obama should win big, McCain too.
2 comments:
Looks like you misunderestimated Obama's margin in WI: with 75% of the vote in, he's 15 points up from Hillary.
And the Dems are outvoting the Republicans by nearly 3 to 1. Part of that is that there's more of a contest on the blue side, of course...but I think it's also reflective of the Republicans' lack of enthusiasm for their candidates. From a Democrat's perspective, McCain's the most formidable candidate...but the Republicans' split base can't wholly swallow him, since he's not such a hardcore ideologue (even though his positions are clearly conservative - I believe he has like an 82% conservative rating based on his senatorial voting).
I was astonished by the numbers. Obama ended up winning by 17 percent, I believe. Over 1 million Dem votes were cast, the R's got 400,000 plus change. Hillary Clinton received twice as many votes as McCain. And she lost by 15, 17 percent, whatever. This in a state that Kerry just barely carried in 04.
Obama is clearly outperforming expectations. And I think we can expect him to either win or come in close 2nd in Texas, based on the momentum he's gathered. The pundits say Clinton has to win by like 20 percent the rest of the way to overtake him.
I don't see that happening.
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