Just a few days before Super Tuesday, the races for the Democratic and Republican nominations are really heating up. Most of the lesser candidates have dropped out. Only Ron Paul remains as a candidate who has not won a primary. And although he has no shot, at least RP has raised a decent amount of money and has shown some respectable numbers; he was beating Giuliani on a regular basis.
On the Republican side, McCain should be able to wrap this thing up relatively soon. The way these primaries have played out have ended up hurting Romney. Too many candidates to split the voting blocs, too many early open primaries where independents could give McCain that extra boost, and too many skeletons in Romney’s political closet to overcome. It will be interesting to see conservative standard bearers like Rush Limbaugh turn 180 degrees and decide that after years of McCain-bashing, they now feel he’s not so bad after all, but I expect it will happen. That’s politics, folks.
A lot of bloggers and pundits on the left side of the spectrum have to be asking themselves how this could’ve happened—the candidate that is absolutely their worst nightmare come next fall has somehow come back from oblivion and become the front-runner for the Republicans. While everyone was making fun of “Nearly-Dead Fred” Thompson and posting jpg’s of Rudy in drag on their Web sites, McCain just kept performing well in the debates, ran an effective campaign on the ground in New Hampshire, and let the other candidates kind of pick each other off. I confess I didn’t expect him to draw enough Republican support to win some of the early states, but he has momentum now and it’s hard to see how Romney can stop him.
On the Democratic side, the race is pretty darn close. Obama has been catching up with Clinton in the polls, but a lot of Super Tuesday will depend on ground games and getting out the vote, and I think Clinton has the advantage there. On the other hand, Obama’s campaign just announced they raised $32 million in January alone, so who knows what that will mean. We’re kind of in uncharted waters here.
I hope to be able to make predictions before Tuesday, but there are a LOT of states in play, so I’m not sure how to handle that. Who will win the American Samoa Caucuses, for example? Has anybody seen poll numbers from Samoa?? I guess I’ll check out HaveSamoaPolitics.com…
2 comments:
On the eve of Super Tuesday, I have two confessions to make.
1) For the first time since becoming eligible to vote, the possibility exists that I may actually get to vote for a candidate that I think is good and will do good things for the country. Every other election has meant a voting booth dilemma where I had to decide who was the lesser of two evils and/or who would probably do the least amount of damage in the span of 4 years.
2) I want to vote for Obama! He's optimistic and he has the experience to lead in the complex 21st century. Given the current world situation, knowledge of Islam and an openness to hearing other perspectives is a huge plus. He's also not mired down in Washington politics and has proven his personal strength in mending his own life (i.e. drug issues), which leads me to believe he could learn from his mistakes, as well as others', without worrying how it will affect him in the polls.
No other candidate compares to Obama.
Clinton is bound and determined to continue politics as usual in Washington, and her goal is power-not openness or solutions. As a woman, I thought she was bad before for putting up with emotional abuse from her husband, but the crocodile tears are horrendous! And I don't even want to consider what she might do with her abuser if they're back in the White House together again. She can't control him and he will never take a backseat to anyone once he gets back into Washington.
McCain, as noted in other posts, has impressive qualifications but, like an aging coach, the game has passed him by. I can't picture him, aged 73-77, being able to do what Obama could accomplish. He's old school, much like Clinton, and it's time to have a leader who doesn't have the spectre of Vietnam hanging over them from their early years.
Romney is a strong candidate, and has some impressive qualifications but he's a little TOO something. Too clean-cut, too bound in to the conservative crazies of the Republican party, TOO New England to make it nationwide, a la John Kerry.
Huckabee, though probably out of the race at this point, is a Southern Baptist minister, and such training does not make for an open minded approach to anything. Despite anything he would claim at this point, ultra-conservative views about abortion, gay marriage, other religions, etc. aren't the kind of thinking that will move us forward into the 21st century.
I sure hope someone is around to help Izzy off the floor once he falls off his chair from shock over this post. I hate to think of him unconscious and his cats gathering around him as the sun rises on Mardi Gras.
so... hard... to... type... from... the... floor...
I think eft's not the only person who is not (AT ALL) a traditional Democrat but supports Obama. I do think he can pull all kinds of voters with the message he has. I'll say more later, gotta get some stuff done before my toddler wakes up from his nap...
Post a Comment