Super Tuesday Aftenoon

This is kind of an exciting day.

For the Republicans, it’s looks like McCain will win most of the primaries/caucuses. However, Huckabee will win a few and it’s possible Romney will do better than expected. I expect Romney to win two at minimum, but the real question is can he pull the upset in California. One poll had him ahead there, but polls can be wrong. If he does, it may signal that the dissatisfaction with McCain among the rank and file is still going to be a problem for him. In any case, a California win for Romney signals that it ain’t over, although I think McCain is still the heavy favorite.

On the Democratic side, it’s kind of chaotic. Polls are all over the place. The latest Zogby poll has Obama up by 13, an astounding number given how far ahead Clinton was a few weeks ago. But a Survey USA poll has Clinton winning by 10.

It’s MADNESS!

Seriously, I don’t trust the polls at this point. They were wrong in New Hampshire. They underestimated the strength of the Obama win in SC. There are tons of undecideds making up their minds at the last minute. And there is so little, position-wise, that separates the two Dems that people are probably going to make a lot of last-minute decisions and flip-flops that are impossible to forecast.

So who the heck knows. I think there’s strong evidence of an Obama surge right across the country. If he pulls in a lot independents and first-time voters and caucas-ers he could really have a good night. On the other hand I think you could argue that Clinton has been making a strong case for herself on issues such as health care. Plus she has tons of party establishment people helping her with the ground game.

This primary, some say, was designed to ensure a quick and decisive consensus around Hillary Clinton as the candidate in 08. No matter what happens tonight, it’s not working out that way. Credit Obama and his staff for changing this game dramatically. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, it’s going to be a race to the finish.

Oh, late update: Clinton’s campaign is now calling for one debate a week between her and Obama. That’s NOT a sign of confidence.


Predictions:

Republicans
John McCain will win:
Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Mitt Romney will win:
Delaware, Massachusetts, and Utah.

Mike Huckabee will win:
Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia.*

Ron Paul will win:
Alaska!

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton will win:
Arkansas, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and American Samoa.

Barack Obama will win:
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, and Kansas.


*Huckabee was announced the winner in West Virginia before I posted this, fyi.