Tuesday, September 30, 2008

It’s Just A Complicated Game

I’ve been mostly silent on the financial bailout plan because mostly, I don’t understand it. And usually, when you’re ignorant about something, it’s better not to broadcast that fact.

However, as with most political blogs, displaying my ignorance is pretty much what I do here at the World’s Most Dangerous Political Blog ™. So here we go!

I’ve always thought of high finance as a big shell game, a kind of semi-religious con that is basically moving lots of numbers around to the benefit of those who pretend to know what the numbers mean. And when I hear, as I have constantly in the past week, that nobody really understands exactly what’s going on, or that the $700 billion number was pulled out of Henry Paulson’s Fannie Mae, or that no one is exactly sure that the bailout will really work, it makes me think that my—admittedly cynical—take might be right.

But let’s assume that a bailout really is needed. Enough smart people are saying that that I am willing to accept the premise.

The problem that faces us is, apparently, that the majority of Americans are, like me, very dubious about this fix. And in an election year, a lot of congress people are just not willing to go against their constituents and vote for this unpopular bill.

It seems to me that some sort of compromise could be found. Say, a bill that provides some security blanket to Wall Street, that doesn’t lock in another huge debt to the taxpayer, that doesn’t give too much authority to Paulsen, that basically says – “here’s what’s needed to tide us over ‘till after the election” —when the new President and Congress came take this on in a less panicked, politically-charged atmosphere.

Now, that may be kicking the can down the road, and maybe we don’t have that luxury. I simply don’t know.

What I do know is that neither of the two candidates seem to be willing to go very far in suggesting fixes, which, given the calendar, is not surprising. It’s annoying to see McCain flailing around on this, but to be honest, I’m not impressed with Obama’s kind of hands-off approach either.

I know he’s put forward a few suggestions. But mostly, I think he’s content to bash McCain and Republican mismanagement. It’s probably good politics. I personally would like to get beyond that, but I’m not always realistic about these things.

I would now like to formally apologize for wasting three-and-a-half minutes of your time.

Carry on.

1 comment:

The Tall Guy said...

I've been following the financial thing pretty closely, and I don't understand it either, but I am pretty sure that it is necessary. The things that get lost are: (1) The $700 billion dollar bailout is for the government to buy things that are worth about $700 billion or more (2) The fat cats that are getting bailed out are still losing tons and tons of money.

The most compelling argument that I have heard in this whole thing is that what we should be doing is bailing out the people that are in over their heads due to signing bad mortgage deals. What we should be doing, is for each individual in a bad situation, doing something to make sure they stay in their house. That makes all the toxic assets not toxic, etc. However, you can't do that in a short period of time, because you need to work out 10 million individual deals, instead of doing a small number of deals in clumps of 100,000.

It's truly a mess. A train wreck. As someone who enjoys reading the business section, and trying to following this stuff, it is truly fascinating high drama. I think many people just don't believe that the danger of a disaster is real.

We'll see. I my prediction is that the house does not pass the bill the second time around either.