Well, that was fun.
A memorable night in American politics; we went to bed not knowing the winner of the Indiana primary. But the overall outcome was clear: Sen. Obama had regained the momentum toward the nomination and Sen. Clinton is running on fumes ... to use a gasoline reference, which seems timely.
Congratulations to all who participated in these two primaries, regardless of what candidate they voted for. They have a right to feel proud of their contributions to our democratic process.
Lots of interesting things on the CNN interactive map.
Much has been made of the so-called racial divide amongst voters, but look how Obama did in nearly all-white counties like Tipton, Carroll, Vanderburgh (where Evansville is): scoring in the 40s, even the high 40s is not bad at all. It's counties like these that kept the totals close enough to give Obama an opportunity to win with results from the big urban counties like Marion and Lake. In the end, he fell just short, but it was much closer than almost anyone predicted (especially me.) And 61-39 Obama in Hamilton County?? That's a surprise.
Another thing that jumped out at me were the numbers on the Republican side. Huckabee won 10 percent of the vote. Ron Paul won 8 percent. Mitt Romney (remember him? The hair guy! No, not Edwards, the REPUBLICAN hair guy!) won 5 percent.
Are you kidding me? A guy that has been out of the race for months, who has already endorsed McCain and is fishing for a VP nod, still pulls in 5 percent? The total Republican vote opposing the anointed candidate who has the entire R establishment behind him and no one campaigning against him is * over * 20 * percent?!?
Something's not right with that picture. But please, go on and talk about how the Democrats are divided.
3 comments:
Obama did quite well in Indiana, and, even though he didn't win (but he came SO close), it was the grand finale for Clinton. Mathematically, she cannot win the nomination. Apparently, even close family friends (ex. McGovern) are now calling for her to end her campaign so they can get about the business of unifying the Democratic party.
And what a job that will be. Mi esposo noted that the Indiana map was clearly marked with dark blue where Obama won, which are the urban areas where the Dems always do well, and light blue where Clinton won, which are the areas that will go for McCain in the fall. IN is, after all, a red state.
The big question is how will Obama do against McCain? But the little questions are endless: Will Clinton's supporters come out for Obama? How many of the primary "Dems" are actually Republicans who just wanted to be in on the fun but will be back with the GOP in November? Will Clinton herself/themselves really work hard for the Obama candidacy? How will an anti-war candidate compete with a former POW when it comes to debating military policies? Given the aging electorate, will a young candidate be able to persuade his own party and a few independents that his lack of experience is balanced by his optimism? And so it goes . . .
The Democratic Party busting apart is somewhat of a pipedream, but it would be so good to break away from our stifling 2-party system. And this method would do so in a very efficient way: a revolutionary vs evolutionary timeframe.
Interesting bit about those Republican votes. This is a case, though, where actual numbers might be informative...in that I imagine fewer voters are bothering to vote for Republican presidential nominees at all, since McCain's got it all sewn up. I suppose votes for people like Huckabee, Romney, Paul, and even, uh, Tommy Thompson (that was his cousin casting the single vote for him) could be construed as protest votes, as arguments that McCain still hasn't been wholly accepted by those components of the Republican coalition that were suspicious of him before the primaries...or it could just be, you know, the handful of Pauliacs in their rusty vans refusing to give up. The votes for Romney? All came from his wives (snerk)...
It does seem likely that Indiana had a lot of R's voting for a Democratic candidate, and many of them will return to the fold come November.
However, on the topic of dissatisfaction with McCain, note that in North Carolina, where you can only vote in the Republican primary if you are registered Republican, there was still a 23 percent protest vote against him.
In other words, in a state where R's had no option of crossing over, McCain still drew under 80 percent.
Now, that's still a lot of support, and 2fs is right, many R's are just staying home on these primaries. But I think it does indicate significant amount of dissatisfaction with the R nominee. Whether in the grand scheme of things it really will make an impact in the fall, I can't say.
By the way, I saw McCain on The Daily Show last night, and he was funny and charming. You can see why media types tend to treat him with kid gloves.
Post a Comment