The consensus is that Sen. Clinton will win Indiana and Sen. Obama will win North Carolina.
My feeling is that it's a relief to see the candidates discussing something other than Rev. Wright. Even thought the main topic for the last week has been Clinton's ill-advised gas tax holiday, at least it's legitimate policy disagreement, rather than guilt-by-association and overhyped controversy.
One of the blogs I've read says my old stomping grounds of Kokomo and Howard County will be a "bellweather" region, so whoever wins there will win the state, by that reasoning. And I see Obama visited an old farmstead near Tipton, where some ancestors of his lived--also within spitting distance of some of my relatives.
I think the Wright thing damaged Obama a little too much for him to come back from in Indiana, but this was always a state in which I would've expected him to have a tough time. If anything, I am surprised by how receptive Hoosiers have been to Obama. Some are saying it will be close in IN, but I'm expecting a respectable double digit win for Clinton that will nonetheless not be a blowout and not give her a big delegate advantage.
In North Carolina, I expect an Obama win of anywhere from 5 to 20 points. Where he ends up in that range will have a big impact on how the race proceeds. A big win would mean a significant delegate and popular vote advantage, that would make Clinton's road a lot tougher. A close win for Obama and Clinton can claim momementum, blah blah blah. She still can't win, probably, but we'll certainly be in for some furious campaigning for the last few states.
A Clinton win in NC would be, in her words, a game-changer.
Predictions
Indiana: 56 Clinton, 44 Obama
North Carolina: 54 Obama, 46 Clinton
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