The dust is beginning to settle from last night’s Iowa caucuses, and it really was an extraordinary night. Obama wins decisively. Huckabee, despite a huge gap in money and party support, wins decisively. Clinton drops to third. Even with the razor-thin margin between her and Edwards, it’s still an amazing development. Ron Paul beats Rudy Giuliani. True, Giuliani didn’t really campaign much in Iowa, but the man has been leading in the national polls for months. Didn’t mean squat.
To me, one of the more interesting things to discuss is where the Republican race goes from here. On the Democratic side, it’s a pretty clear choice: Obama or Clinton, and Obama now has the front-runner mantle. Edwards will stay in the race, but where can he win? Hard to see any state where he’s going to do better than Iowa, where he’s practically lived for the past four years.
But the Republican side is really in flux. A lot of people are saying McCain is positioned for a comeback of historic proportions. The senator was all but written off by many observers months ago. But, the reasoning goes, everything has changed with Huckabee’s big win. Iowa was uniquely suited to respond to Huckabee, but it will be much harder for him to win in states that don’t have large numbers of evangelical conservatives. Therefore: McCain wins in New Hampshire, where he’s done well before, finishing off Romney, and goes forward as the frontrunner.
I’m not sure I buy that scenario.
First of all, the challenges that people say Huckabee faces are also the challenges that McCain must overcome. Huckabee an outsider with little support among party hardliners? McCain, the famous “maverick” senator, has often marched out of step with other Republicans. I’m not sure all of them are willing to forgive him, and his stance on immigration really puts him at odds with many hard-line conservatives.
Huckabee low on finances and lacking in infrastructure? McCain has been suffering the same problem. A few months ago, everyone was talking about how he had no money left. Has that problem gone away?
Huckabee inexperienced in foreign policy? Ok, you got me on that one. But McCain has his own weaknesses. His foreign policy position is largely based around doing whatever it takes to win in Iraq. Setting aside the question of what that means, I have a hard time seeing how a pro-war candidate does well with the majority of voters in the general election, or with independents in primaries such as New Hampshire's. People may be relieved that the level of violence is down in Iraq, and they may even credit the “surge” for helping. That doesn’t mean they want to stay the course with this war. McCain is swimming against a tide that is still very strong, even if some say it’s no longer the main campaign issue.
Many have commented on the so-called love affair between McCain and the media, but I think that’s overrated. Huckabee does very well whether he’s on TV or in person; he may be the only Republican candidate more media-savvy than McCain.
So I think it’s still a pretty complicated picture. Romney still has money and the Republican establishment behind him, I think. Huckabee is probably going to do well in states like South Carolina and Florida. Thompson and Giuliani are probably going to make a big push in Florida. So who knows where it will end up?
On a final note, these are indeed strange days, as I find myself agreeing with much of this David Brooks column.
4 comments:
I would have to agree that the Republican landscape is a bit unsettled which is not good news. The Democrats appear to have a clear choice between two fairly equally matched candidates, from an issues stand point. I don’t believe we are going to find much of a division between these candidates, they are too good of a match for when the dust settles after the primary. The division for Democrats will not be between their candidates but between the issues that the Democrats have chosen to adopt and the conflict between the values of their base and those issues. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors in an election, but I believe the general Democratic voter still know the core believes of these candidates. They know what they are getting and that may still be an ultimate factor in the final analysis.
The Republicans on the other hand are suffering from more division which may be good news for the Dems. I was surprised by Huckabee’s showing and I must admit it will force me to do some research, I did not think he would be a viable candidate. I really thought Giuliani would have made a better showing simply due to the polls and the amount of money. I do believe that this is a sign of discomfort with these Repulbican candidates. I am not sure if Giuliani will win over fly over country simply because he is not necessarily considered a conservative candidate. Certainly the same holds true for McCain. You called him a maveric, I would submit that many voters are trying to decide whether he is a maveric or an outsider. For many voters I wonder if that is also true for Giuliani. Unfortunately for Republicans this works against the unity the party needs.
You know, I was surprised at the two top R candidates that emerged early in the contest: Romney and Giuliani. They both have a very questionable records of governing as conservatives.
To some extent, both of them "reinvented" themselves for this campaign, playing up their conservative side and ignoring their not-so-conservative histories.
So I, and probably a lot of people, kept waiting for the real conservative to appear. A lot of people thought it was going to be Fred Thompson, but he hasn't really caught on with people. He might still make a move, I suppose.
One question that this campaign may answer is whether if you get enough money and party support, can simply calling yourself a Republican be enough? It's beginning to look like not. Maybe that's too harsh a way to frame it, but that's the question that comes to my mind.
Huckabee, for all his outsider status, does make a more convincing conservative, although he certainly gives us a few new twists. Maybe like Brooks says, he's a new breed. I don't want to go too far with my Huckafandom, but he certainly seems like a breath of fresh air to me.
As far as unity, I would agree that the R's seem to be divided right now. It will be interesting to see if they can unite behind whoever ends up with the nomination.
Maybe a certain amount of division is inevitable, when the most well-known Republican is keeping his distance from these campaigns, and they are pretty much ignoring him too. The unspoken truth about these candidates is that they all have a handicap to deal with, sitting in the Oval Office.
My response is pretty much "yeah, what you said." It's kind of a mess right now on both sides. Hillary is not down and out...Not by a long shot. She can lose Iowa, New Hampshire and maybe others and still win the nomination. I do think Romney and Edwards have to be scratching their heads right now. They both spent a lot of time and money in Iowa and it seemed to get them no where. Huckabee's support is much broader than evangelicals. In fact, I have personally spoken to a couple of organizations that ARE NOT happy with the Iowa results because ROMNEY is their man. Ugh! Having read my blog, you know how I feel about special underwear. Peace!
Thanks for writing this.
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