In an election that’s supposed to be all about change and new faces, last night’s New Hampshire results shows that a significant number of voters aren’t ready to let go of their security blankets just yet.
How else to explain the victories by a 60-year-old Senator and a 71-year-old Senator, both of whom have been involved in Washington politics for decades?
Both of these victories were upsets to some degree. Clinton’s was a stunning turnaround, as it appears that many NH voters decided at the last minute that they would give her a chance after all. Did the tears do it? Or was it a backlash against all the attention that the tears (or the near-tears to be more accurate) drew from the media? Or did that moment have nothing to do with it?
Heck if I know.
As for McCain, his campaign was really on the rocks a few months ago, running out of money and laying off staff, but things certainly will improve with this win. I am not sure what the win says overall, though. He did well in the state where he’s done well in the past. Will he be able to sustain it? Do the people of the US want another old white guy as president?
I think Huckabee actually is looking better after last night, as Romney is pretty much on life support. Huck should do well in S. Carolina and OK in Michigan. If he wins SC and gets 2nd or 3rd in Michigan, he’s in great shape. Giuliani also has to like the results. I’m not sure there is a clear front runner. I just find it hard to believe that core Republican voters are going to support McCain in some of these states that don’t let independents vote in the primaries. Maybe I’m wrong.
The Democrats have two viable candidates left, and either would make a fine nominee for the party. There are some, of course, who think Obama is too inexperienced or that Clinton is, oh, the antichrist, but from my point of view, they both are strong candidates. Hopefully they can continue to debate and make their cases without getting too negative and divisive. Obama does rely more on young voters and independents to help his campaign, which makes the road maybe a little tougher for him. Despite the country’s appetite for change, the most mainstream Democratic candidate may be the one that emerges as the nominee (yes, I am talking about Clinton).
If nothing else, the unexpected results of last night’s primary has produced some funny lines in the blogosphere. My two favorites:
“In retrospect I regret posting the item about Obama turning water to wine.” – Joel Achenbach, Washington Post.
“I feel weird right now. Not the usual "breaking in a new thong" weird. It's something else.” Bill in Portland Maine, DailyKos.
1 comment:
Thanks for adding my post from email, Izzy. My system is now running without glitches so here we go . . .
New Hampshire was certainly entertaining.
Though McCain's victory wasn't all that stunning, given NH voters' independent streak, the amount he beat #2 by certainly was. Clearly, if McCain ever gets tired of Arizona, NH is an option because they love him there!
Clinton's last minute surge was interesting. Her teary performance actually helped her and her adoption of Obama's mantra of change paid off. Given the debate about how real her tears were, I'd just like to say that, in politics and in Hollywood, there are no true wardrobe malfunctions. Everything is staged and rehearsed. Maybe this is why the Clintons always do so well with the Hollywood crowd...being one of them and all. Then again, this is kind of a chicken and egg argument, isn't it?
The lower part of both packs are now dropping out. Richardson, Dodd, etc. are pulling back. Hopefully, in the case of Richardson, it's to position himself for a VP bid.
So now they're on to South Carolina and Nevada.
South Carolina is going to help Huckabee and Romney...but McCain may take a hit. SC likes Christian conservatives...lots of Southern Baptists. Clinton may struggle for that very reason and the fact that SC rarely gets warm and fuzzy towards liberal politicians of either gender. The Dems in SC will likely prefer Obama, but we'll see.
Nevada is shaping up to be big for Obama, what with the union endorsement and all. Clinton's appeal to blue collar union members has been highly touted but it's invisible to me. This editorial (http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/01/10/hillary/) provides a psychological perspective on Sen. Clinton and there's a lot to be said for the analysis. The Republicans are a bit harder to read. McCain might do well, being so close to home, but so could Romney for the same reason religiously-speaking. Mitt needs the bump more at this point. Rev. Huckabee wouldn't sit well with Sin City, would he?
SC prediction:
Dems: 1) Obama 2)Edwards 3)Clinton
GOP: 1) Huckabee 2) Romney 3)McCain/Giuliani tie
NV prediction:
Dems: 1) Obama 2) Clinton 3) Edwards
GOP: 1)Romney 2) McCain 3) Giuliani
Post a Comment