Did You Watch the Debates?

I didn’t, but I’ve read some blogs and heard a five-minute recap on NPR, so I am totally qualified to write 6,000 words on the subject.

Nah, I’m not gonna do that.

I think my observation, worth just under two cents, is that no matter what happens tomorrow, the main candidates are going to continue to fight hard as Super Tuesday approaches.

All signs point to an Obama victory in New Hampshire. This is great news for the Obama camp, but it’s far from over. It’ll be interesting to see what tactics the Clinton camp adopts in upcoming primaries. So far, they haven’t gone negative. I think it’s a lose/lose proposition to start airing attack ads on Obama at this point. But they may be able to come up with a more effective message.

Speaking of new tactics, is it just coincidence that after some were saying that Clinton needs to show more emotion, her voice cracked during a meeting today and she was described as being “emotional?” Oooooo, she’s good. (Let’s be fair. It could’ve been completely unscripted. Hillary Clinton is not going to ever catch a break on this stuff, though.)

The imminent McCain victory in New Hampshire is not a completely sure thing. Some polls have showed a slight Romney rebound. I think if Romney can manage a respectable second place finish or pull an upset, he can claim his own “comeback kid” title (though the phrase is getting almost as old as Mike Gravel) and move on to the next round. Giuliani is still planning on jumping into contention in later, bigger states—he’s still leading in Florida, although Huckabee is closing on him. (thanks, RealClearPolitics.com). So I guess we’ll have him to kick around a while longer.

Thompson will continue to campaign for “Most Sleep-Inducing Baritone” at least until the Florida primary. Who else… Oh yeah, Huckabee! (So quickly we forget) Well, Huck may place a respectable third in New Hampshire, no biggie, expectations were quite conveniently lowered for him there. If he does well in South Carolina, he’s still a contender.

Some people are saying that some of the independents who voted for McCain last time are going to swing to Obama this time. Those would have to be some very flexible voters, to go from backing McCain to Obama. I could see some of those folks going to Ron Paul, though.

Speaking of which, Fox News excluded Ron Paul from the final NH debate, a move that led the NH Republican Party to drop its sponsorship of the debate. Paul beat Giuliani in Iowa and has respectable numbers in NH. So why was he cut from the debate? Was it because of his opposition to the Iraq war? Hard to see a legitimate reason.

Oh, predictions? Ummmmmmmmm...

R: 1. Romney, 2. McCain, 3. Huckabee
D: 1. Obama, 2. Clinton, 3. Edwards