Dayton vs. the GOP revolution

It's been interesting to watch the political changes in Minnesota and Wisconsin over the past two years.

How's that for an understatement?

In both states, we saw something of a Republican revolution at the polls in 2010. In Wisconsin, Scott Walker was elected Governor, with a Republican-majority legislature. In Minnesota, Mark Dayton barely squeaked by to win the Governor's mansion for the DFL, but Republicans scored a historic win by taking both the House and the Senate.

We all know what's happened in Wisconsin since then. And we're just weeks away from seeing if the huge backlash that Walker inspired will be successful in ousting him from office.

Minnesota has not grabbed national headlines the way Wisconsin did, but politics here has been almost as lively. Dayton and the Republicans have clashed repeatedly, with the mild-in-appearance Dayton showing a surprisingly tough and confrontational side when faced with the Tea Party approach of state's GOP leadership. Dayton has thrown some real punches, and the GOP here, despite having some very strong-willed characters of its own, has not fared well, in part because the party has shot itself in the foot a few times.

In the last year, the GOP has weathered a sex scandal--which resulted in the Republican Senate leader resigning, and financial scandals, which badly undercut its message on being the best party to manage state government. Going bankrupt is not a good way to convince voters you're good with fiscal matters.

Who knows how much those issues affected the GOP's game in St. Paul, but Dayton for the most part seemed to outmaneuver them, despite the fact that he led the minority party. He got the stadium bill passed--with a bigger margin than most expected. He got a pared-down bonding bill--not as much as he wanted, but he always said he was willing to compromise on that one.

He also stood firm on not draining the state's financial reserves by vetoing the GOP's tax bills. He vetoed the first large tax-cut bill, despite the GOP's threats of torpedoing the stadium bill in retaliation. Then at the very end of the session, he vetoed a second, smaller tax-cut bill for the same reason—because it would lead to larger deficits and not spread the tax-cut goodness fairly to all Minnesotans, instead focusing on business tax cuts. If you think you hear a skeptical tone, you do. Since I moved to Minnesota, I’ve seen wave after wave of tax cuts, all promising to improve the economy. Usually, the economy has gotten worse.

But I digress. We were talking about Dayton vs. the GOP. And so what is the result of this clash-of-the-titans spectacle? Well, a recent Survey USA Poll suggests that Dayton is in pretty good shape at the moment; the GOP, not so much.

The poll shows Minnesota voters approve of the job Dayton is doing, 56 percent to 33 percent. The state Legislature, however, has a 21 percent approval rating to a 67 percent disapproval rating. Ouch. Now, that may reflect in part some dissatisfaction with the Vikings stadium deal, which is a bipartisan affair--plenty of DFL voters don't like the stadium deal.

But though the poll shows some of that ambivalence to the stadium deal, it also shows that when given a choice, the voters surveyed were relatively supportive: 43 percent saying they support building a new stadium, 36 percent saying renovate it, and 16 percent saying forget it. That's better than I would've expected.

(A note here to my progressive friends who have been bending my ear about how terrible it is to publicly-finance a stadium. I understand the argument, but there are certain realities to any business. And in the business of pro sports, the bottom line is that if Minnesota kept punting this issue down the road (football reference!) the owners would've eventually gotten a much better offer, with the NFL's blessing. And then it probably would've been too late. Maybe some would've been OK with losing the Vikings to make a point. But Minnesota has lost sports teams before, and what did that accomplish? Did it change anything?)

Two other small items from the poll: Obama leads Romney 52 percent to 38 percent in this survey, and 52 percent of Minnesota voters agree that same-sex couples should be allowed to get married. 42 percent disagreed. It's too early too throw any parties about those numbers, but they are encouraging. The constitutional referendum on the same-sex marriage issue gives Minnesota the chance to make history by being the first state to vote down a constitutional ban on gay marriage.

It's early. The Survey USA reading is just one poll. And who knows what will happen over the summer and into the fall. But right now it looks as though the Tea Party brand of Republican politics has not done well in either Minnesota or Wisconsin, two heartland states that gave that approach a chance in governance.

And I think it's fair to say Dayton has given a masterful example of how to counter a Legislature that is diametrically opposed to your political philosophy—while still accomplishing some of your main goals. It’s an impressive performance, though not unprecedented. After all, Tim Pawlenty wrote the book on being a successful Republican governor in a state capitol dominated by Democrats. But I don’t think anyone expected Dayton to have this kind of success. It remains to be seen if the GOP can keep their revolution alive after a session in which they were not terribly effective.