OK, I’m guessing that The World’s Most Dangerous Political Blog ™ , despite its dangerousness, is not pulling in thousands, or hundreds, or even dozens, of readers.
But for you proud few, here’s an opportunity to give your two cents.
I’m calling for Election Predictions. You can enter them into any comments at any time in the next few days, and I’ll compile them and put them on the main page. You should be able to comment anonymously, but give yourself some kind of moniker. Karl Rove, Joe the Plumber, Bob the Builder, anything.
What I’d like to see:
1) Your pick of who’s going win the Presidential election. Go into as much detail as you want. Predict the percentages. Call the states. Estimate the length of the concession/victory speech.
2) Your take on how the Senate/House races will turn out. How many seats with the Dems pick up? What are the big races in your state and how do you think they’ll turn out? And is America really ready for Senator Al Franken??
3) What else? Oh, we could discuss What It All Means. If the Dems have a big night, how will they govern? What’s next for the R party? And listen, I really expect my conservative readers to come through for me, allright? I want to hear—in detail!—about how the results prove that the Democratic Party is a fractured, dysfunctional mess that is on the verge of collapse. Don’t let me down, people.
So that’s it. Tell me what choice we’re going to make on Tuesday night. In as much or as little detail as you want.
I’ll post your thoughts, and mine, on Monday.
3 comments:
Since I voted early, here are my predictions:
President (popular)
Obama-53%
McCain-47%
Not a landslide, but enough of a margin to be convincing. No drama (like 2000) and no riots (like the fringe is predicting).
CNN has posted the electoral college map at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/ including a blank one to play with.
Obama-323
McCain-215
CNN is probably right about most of their predictions, including the states that are leaning one way or the other.
AZ will go red bc nearly every state backs their own. (Except for TN and Gore in 2000.) CO will surprise the pollsters and go red bc they're more conservative than they like to admit.
NV will go blue bc it's a state that doesn't mind taking a gamble and MT will join them just to rebel a bit.
For the toss-ups: FL, MO, and IN will go red. (IN can't change, MO will be close, and FL will vote for the candidate closest to their average age.)
ND, OH, and NC will go blue. (ND will align with the rest of the Upper Midwest, OH will glom along with PA, and NC will tip to Obama...barely.)
The two hottest races in NC are for the governor and the US Senate. It seems it's all about change, so the governor will be McCrory (R) and the US Senator will be Hagen (D). McCrory will unseat the anointed one bc the present D administration is rife with scandal. Dole will be out of the Senate bc of her pandering to the conservative base-they want some changes too.
Overall, the Senate/House races will wind up with a 60-40 split towards the D. R are tied to big money problems and that'll come out in the wash with Congress. No idea if America is ready for Sen. Franken but it appears MN is not and that's what counts. (AF is a bit too crazy, even for the home crowd.)
I don't think the results will prove that the D party is a "fractured, dysfunctional mess that is on the verge of collapse." Clearly this has already been proven. The bait they cannot take is to continue as they have. On Pelosi's watch, approval ratings have fallen into the single digits and little work has been accomplished. She was quoted the other day as saying that if the Dems get the majority then Congress will be more bipartisan. Weird. Seems like it'd go the other way, esp. with a bigger collection of Dems. Pelosi is truly channeling her own, unique reality.
Obama 49% McCain 47% with 3% going to libertarians and greens.
Electorial Obama gets about 300.
Congress will increase with some more democrats in the house, I don't think they get to 60 in the senate, but close. Lieberman changes parties anyhow.
Franken squeaks in. MN thinks they are not ready for him, but after a couple of years find out he's a better policy guy than they would have thought. He's not all red meat for the base as everyone believes, and all the old satire that is getting flung back at him is hard to bring back up 6 years later.
Just want to comment on how things might be more bipartisan under the democrats. I don't think it is because there are more democrats, I think a lot of the democrats coming in are very conservative. I think some of them are replacing the moderate republican which got squeezed out during the bush years and before. I think congress always has a low approval rating, except for your own individual congressperson for your district.
I think what I have a very strong sense of is how divisive the last 8 years of the bush administration has been. If the democrats and in charge, and they don't gloat do the same permanent campaign and try to force every partisan advantage, if they actually try to go after good policy and find middle ground, they can do very well. I think the key is how involved the new more conservative senators from traditionally republican states (such as Jim Webb VA) are, I think they can really hold the keys to the next 2 years.
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