People on the Obama side of this year’s election are little stressed right now. The polls are starting to look better for McCain (he’s up five points in one poll today), and there’s the whole slimy “Obama is a celebrity” attack ad phenomenon—which reminds people of Swiftboating and seems to be working, unfortunately. Plus the Georgian crisis plays into McCain’s strengths. And now that “Saddleback” forum, where McCain got good-to-glowing reviews, has a lot of people worried. Shocking, isn’t it, that a conservative evangelical forum, where McCain tells the audience what it wants to hear and Obama doesn’t, turns out to work better for McCain?
I understand the anxiety. But the campaign really has barely gotten out of the starting gate at this point. We have VPs to pick, conventions to get through, debates, and any number of new, unforeseen developments ahead of us as the race progresses.
To me, the odds are still strongly in Obama’s favor. In fact, if I were to bet, I would bet that Obama will win decisively in the fall. Keep in mind, I’ve been very wrong before. But just looking at the challenges before both candidates, I like Obama’s chances much better. And I think the key to his chances is to let him be himself.
Town hall meetings are fine, and Obama should keep doing them. But he also needs to do rallies, speeches, and big events to fire up his base and get the attention of independent voters. Let the McCain campaign call him a “celebrity.” Ronald Reagan was a celebrity. John F. Kennedy was a celebrity. Obama should stand up in front of 50,000 people and say, “Are you here to see a celebrity, or are you here because you want to see a better tomorrow for this country?” And put the response in every TV ad he broadcasts.
People in this country want change. They need to be reminded that John McCain, despite his maverick image, has come to embrace Bush Republicanism. That is a tragedy for McCain, and it will be a tragedy for our country if we vote for four more years of it.
The polls at this point are not meaningless, but they are not at all a good guide for the outcome in November. Barring torrential rain or a Clinton meltdown, Obama should get a good bounce out of the Democratic convention. I think the debates will also be better for Obama than some might suspect. And Obama’s ground game, the enthusiasm gap, the number of new voters, all of this gives him advantages that no other Democratic candidate has had in recent memory.
There’s a long way to go. McCain’s doing better than expected. But things really are just getting started. And Obama is a proven winner.
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