The Saturday Night Live Rebound

It’s beginning to look like Tuesday could be a very good day for Hillary Clinton. After 11 consecutive defeats to Barack Obama in primaries and caucuses, a lot of people were (and are) writing Clinton off. However, Clinton staffers always saw Texas and Ohio as their “firewall” states, a place to make a stand and gain back some momentum.

It’s possible that this strategy, which seemed unlikely to succeed just one week ago, may actually work.

Polls show Obama has closed large gaps in Texas and Ohio. The problem with Obama’s success is that now he’s expected to come storming back in the polls as a matter of course. It’s almost a given that as people get to know Obama, they like him. A lot. But in Texas and especially Ohio, he may not be able to completely close the gap.

If it turns out that Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, I blame Saturday Night Live. A little over one week ago, they aired a skit that suggested that Obama receives deferential, fawning treatment from the press, and that Clinton, on the other hand, is treated unfairly. (The program followed this up with a surprise appearance by Clinton herself last Saturday.)

Now, not a lot of people watch Saturday Night Live. But it remains one of the few television programs that can get the nation’s attention, and the “Barack has it easy” theme seems to have caught on with the media, and with the public to some extent. There have been more negative stories on Obama in subsequent days, and more positive coverage of Clinton. Of course, this is all subjective, just as the Clinton camp’s perception of being picked on is subjective. But I think overall there has been a slight change in tone, even though it’s hard to prove.

I’ve also heard from Democratic voters who seem to agree that Obama has had a relatively easy ride and that the media has it in for Clinton. And women voters, understandably, seem to bristle at the way Clinton is treated by some of the mainstream media pundits. I think that in part may explain why Clinton continues to do so well among women—who are a powerful voting bloc in the Democratic party.

What it comes down to, the day before the Ohio/Rhode Island/Texas/Vermont primaries, is that Clinton seems to be rising just slightly in the polls, and Obama sinking just slightly or holding steady. Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat in Texas, and Clinton is slightly ahead in Ohio. Clinton will almost certainly win Rhode Island, Obama will almost certainly win Vermont.

Now there are some who argue that the focus should be on the actual math here: if Clinton doesn’t win 65 percent or more, the two candidates will essentially split the delegates, so Obama stays ahead in the delegate count. And there are scenarios in Texas’ complicated system that would see Obama win more delegates even if he loses the popular vote.

But let’s not kid ourselves. Clinton wins in both the big firewall states gives her a huge bounce, even if she wins by a tiny margin. It would put the race back to even, and we’ll go on to the next round with neither candidate being a clear frontrunner. Even one win between Texas and Ohio gives Clinton an excuse to carry on and hope to somehow pull it out in the end.

If she loses both Texas and Ohio, it’s a different story. And Obama, with a history of performing better than the polls suggest, could pull it off. But this long, historic campaign is likely to continue to be very close and very hard-fought.

Predictions
Obama wins Vermont and Texas.
Clinton wins Ohio and Rhode Island.

McCain who? Oh, ok, he’ll win everything. I haven’t even heard Mike Huckabee’s name lately. Time to go fishin’, Mr. H. (Or squirrel-huntin’, whatever.)