Will New Hampshire narrow the field?

Well, my Iowa predictions weren't so great, so it's time to double-down and see if I can get New Hampshire wrong as well...

The big question to me is whether Marco Rubio's meltdown at last Saturday's debate will stop or reverse his momentum after Iowa. Rubio did well enough in Iowa that it seemed moderate voters might rally round him to finally create a strong "establishment" GOP candidate that could challenge the really radical candidates such as Cruz and Trump.

But oh boy, did Rubio blow it in the debate. His repetition of a talking point about Obama was not only robotic, he used it to duck a question that had nothing to do with Obama. We *could* call this just a brain freeze that could happen to anyone, but to me it was up there with Rick Perry's "Oops" moment; a screw-up so revealing that it could derail the entire candidacy. And I *liked* Rubio as a candidate.

On the other hand, it's possible that the average New Hampshire voter, having been bombarded with information on the candidates, won't pay too much attention to one mis-step, or maybe enough  people have already made up their minds.

But I'll be watching for--and expecting--decent results for Christie and Kasich in the final vote totals. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if even Bush outperforms his recent polls. If those establishment candidates do better than expected, this ungainly, over-populated field of Republican candidates will lurch on to the next state with nothing resolved. Which just helps Trump, and to a lesser extent, Cruz. If Trump underperforms again, as he did in Iowa, Ted Cruz could end up in a very strong position.

On the Democratic side, there won't be any big surprises, I expect. Bernie will win, Clinton might get within 10 points, and they'll move on to states much less likely to feel the Bern. I still think Clinton is the strong favorite for the nomination, but she has to be very careful not to alienate the young voters who love Sanders.

On the whole, the New Hampshire primary may bring a lot less clarity than some expected. Whether that's a good thing or bad thing probably depends on how much you're enjoying this spectacle.