Final Predictions

President of the United States:

As of today, Obama leads nationally by 0.4 percentage points nationally, according to Real Clear Politics. Yes, this is a close race.

But the race is not decided by the national vote, it's decided by the electoral vote, and there Obama leads in 10 out of the 12 states listed as battleground states by RCP. We can speculate all day (and some will) about voter enthusiasm, margins of error, ground games, expanding the map, and independent voter share, but clearly, being ahead is better than being behind.

I find that RCP polling averages give a little more weight to R-leaning pollsters, so I'll use them instead of HuffPost/Pollster, or the folks at Talking Points Memo. Just from the RCP analysis; if we choose an arbitrary cutoff point, say anything at 2 percent or above for Obama, give him those states and give Romney *not only* the states where he leads but the states where Obama's lead is below 2 percent, what do we find?

Obama wins the electoral college: 281 to 257.

I personally think Obama has a good chance to win Virginia and Colorado (303-235) and would not be shocked if he also won Florida (332-206).

The polls could be wrong. There could be a Romney wave, or Obama voters could not turn out as expected. I'd be shocked to see Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania end up in the Romney camp. But a Florida/Ohio/Colorado combination could get Romney there.

In the end, I'll give Romney Virginia and Florida, and predict a 290-248 Obama win. I expect the winner of the electoral college will win the popular vote. If not, well, I believe there is some historical precedent for that.

Minnesota Races

Frankly, I'm no expert on these; I haven't followed the polls closely. But I'll take a shot. I never bet against Michele Bachmann, so I'll predict she holds on for a win. Ellison wins. Walz wins. Peterson, Paulson, & Kline (not a folk group) -- they return to Congress. The really interesting race is Chip Cravaack (R) versus Rick Nolan (DFL). I'm inclined to think Nolan, a former congressman, can turn this traditionally DFL district back to blue, but after hearing the two debate, I'll admit that Cravaack seems smart and in-touch with the district. He may pull it out.

Amy Klobuchar will win by perhaps the biggest margin of any Senate race this cycle as she tromps Kurt Bills. Bills is a sincere and smart guy, but seems out of his depth. His somewhat radical stands (he got the nomination after the state Republican party was taken over by Ron Paul followers) have not helped at all. Another example why embracing its libertarian wing has really been a handicap for the Republican Party. The R's would have a Senate majority if they didn't keep having to deal with Tea Party and Libertarian candidates who are just clearly outside the mainstream.

Constitutional Amendments
In Minnesota, voters are being asked to vote on whether to amend the constitution to ban same-sex marriages, and to require a photo ID system for voting. Both amendments are horrible ideas for this state, where gay marriage is already illegal (sadly) and one of the best voting systems in the nation would be thrown ass-over-teakettle with the passage of the amendment in question.

Unfortunately, both types of referendums have a history of passing. This year, a large campaign that includes the business community, part of the faith community, and a wide range of Minnesotans have rallied to solidify opposition to the marriage amendment. I believe it will be blocked. I am less optimistic about the photo ID amendment, and I predict it will pass narrowly. Polls show a close race on both, which is encouraging, but I suspect voter ID will pass. Then it will be up to the courts and next year's Legislature to either find a way to block it or make it less onerous. We'll see.

Well, that's all I got. Please feel free to share your predictions in the comments section.

And VOTE!