Can Obama Win?

I'm very sad to report that question has entered my mind the past few days, as the Rev. Wright once again has stirred controversy with some pretty outlandish statements.

Sen. Obama should win, based on the math. But if the focus of this race becomes completely centered on Wright and the racial divide in this country, the Clinton campaign will be able to make a much stronger case that Obama is the weaker candidate in the general election. That may result in some stronger-than-anticipated wins for Clinton, and a reversal in the trend of superdelegates away from her and to Obama.

In other words, she could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I have come to believe that how the campaign plays out will say a lot about the character of this nation and its people. Whether we can truly overcome some of the racism and divisiveness that so deeply stains our country's history. I grew up in a community of people who were basically good and respectful of others, yet I heard and felt the racial divide constantly. It really brings out the worst in people. And part of why I have been so fascinated by this campaign of Obama's was because it seemed that maybe we could actually start to get past that.

That accomplishment is still very much in doubt. Obama has done nothing wrong, and he has for the most part handled the controversy well. But for whatever reason, people do associate him with *the rantings of* his pastor. It's not fair, it's not the way it should be. But I think it could hurt him in both IN (a lot) and NC (not as much, but still enough).

Given the mess that Wright has created by his recent performances, I think Obama's repudiation of Wright today is a good move, and it might reassure some voters. But Obama has such a high hurdle to clear with certain voters who may agree with him but are just likely to take extreme offense at something like the Wright controversy. Those voters don't need much to push them to Clinton or to stay home. And that could make a huge difference.



(note: I added the three words: *the rantings of* for clarity. I think obviously Obama has had close ties to Wright in the past. But the more extreme comments from his former pastor are clearly a world away from Obama's beliefs and approach. I just don't think you can judge a man for something someone else says. Anyhow, I wanted to make that clear.)