Trump’s Republican National Convention: Oh the humanity!

The Republican National Convention wrapped up last Thursday night, and it was conducted with about the level the competence and civility we’ve come to expect from a Trump campaign production. Media outlets used the word “dark” to describe Trump’s message after his speech Thursday night, but another two-word description was also common for the convention as a whole: “dumpster fire.”

It was run poorly. There was public squabbling on the floor of the convention. It featured a rather lackluster lineup of speakers, including soap opera stars, marginal political figures, and of course, many, many members of Trump’s family.

The entire convention was bookended by two disasters: Melania’s plagiarism of Michelle Obama, and Trump’s Friday-morning talk to supporters, in which he reverted to style and went on a vindictive rant about Ted Cruz. Both were telling: the Melania speech neatly demonstrated both the campaign’s lack of competence and its penchant for denial—it took days for the Trump campaign to admit this was a simple mistake by a speechwriter helping Mrs. Trump with her speech. We got a preview of how small but significantly embarrassing mistakes would be handled by a Trump Administration: chaotically.

The Trump press conference on Friday morning nicely undermined the more conventional speech the night before (if by conventional you can include something that many said read better in the original German). At the event, instead of talking up party unity, Trump attacked Cruz and Kasich again, re-litigating old battles and puffing himself up in his typical manner. He made veiled threats to the GOP establishment, which he said had better raise enough money; and he said Republicans “have no choice” but to vote for him.

Of course, this tantrum was brought about in part by Cruz and Kasich, neither of whom have endorsed Trump. Cruz’ Wednesday night speech, delivered before poor Mike Pence accepted the nomination as VP, was another disaster, one that would be unthinkable in a normal election year. The candidate who came in 2^nd to Trump gave an entire speech without endorsing the GOP nominee, and in fact, told Republicans to “vote their conscience.” The convention hall filled with boos. That’s some great prime time TV, right there. 

This points directly to the other huge stain on this convention—many establishment Republicans, to their credit, cannot support Trump. The extreme Tea Party wing, after decades of being sold a bill of goods chock full of racism, resentment, and victimization, are solidly behind the hateful rhetoric of Trump. The establishment, on the other hand, can at least see that Trump has no real allegiance to the GOP or any of its traditional issues. 

So we saw a convention where a GOP presidential contender who is also the Governor of Ohio skipped a convention in Cleveland. Other top Republican senators and leaders were also not in attendance. The unspoken message of Cruz, Kasich and many others was: “We’re not going to be associated with this clown. We’ll lose this year, regroup, and come back in 2020.”

The defections and pratfalls of the convention probably played a role in its underwhelming ratings. After much was made of Trump’s mastery of the television medium and ability to put on a great show, the convention itself was a letdown. Ratings were middling, with his big speech pulling in about 2 million more viewers than saw Romney’s speech four years ago, but fewer than the number who watched John McCain’s acceptance speech in ’08.

So where do we stand, now that the dumpster fire is guttering out? Conventional wisdom says candidates get a post-convention bump in the polls—I wouldn’t expect much of one after that performance, but maybe we’ll see a small one for Trump.

To me, the dynamics of the race stay the same: Trump pulls in the very rabid right-wing base and a sizeable portion of conservative leaners, who, in typical American fashion, will stick with their team regardless of the quality of the product. But he continues to alienate African-Americans. Latinos, women, and college-educated whites. Did the convention change that? No. Did it show him pivoting toward the center, as some predicted? No. Did it paint him as more human and likable, as many expect the Democratic convention to attempt to do for Hillary? No.The only things the Republican Party takes away from this convention are negatives. 

Preaching to the choir does not usually win you presidential elections. Everyone keeps saying this year is different. I am not convinced that it’s THAT different. After this ugly, divisive convention following an ugly, divisive primary, are there really that many people who don’t see Donald Trump for what he is? I keep calling this a national IQ test. And nothing from the Republican National Convention has suggested to me that this nation is dumb enough to elect Donald Trump.

(One of the songs Trump plays at his campaign events. Seriously.)